摘要
暴雨洪涝灾害更是种十分常见的自然灾害，所以对其风险评估刻不容缓。该文利用到江苏1957-2007年的降水资料，将整个评估流程划分为四个部分，致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境敏感性、承灾体易损性和抗灾因子安全性，其中自然灾害中导致灾害直接发生的因素即是致灾因子，因此对致灾因子的正确评估对整个评估起着举足轻重的作用。其中选取样条插值法中的张力样条函数来处理致灾因子部分，能形成一个比较光滑的曲线，比较真实的符合降雨情况，然后结合灾害评估方法、层次分析法、ArcGIS空间处理方法、加权综合评价法，以县为单位，公里为栅格进行评估。结果表明江苏省的自然风险呈从南至北逐渐增加，风险较高地区主要集中在苏北例如宿迁、徐州、淮安等城市一带，其结果与历年灾情相符合。
Rainstorm and flood risk is very common kind of natural disaster,so urgent assessment of its risks.This paper use Jiangsu rainfall data 1957-2007 ,and it will evaluate the whole process is divided into four parts,hazard risk,suffering flexibility,pregnant disaster environmental sensitivity,disaster resisting security,among other factors,hazards are the factors directly occur cause natural disasters , so the correct assessment of hazard assessment for the entire play a decisive role.The paper selected spline interpolation method tension spline function to handle with hazards section, the advantage in tension spline function with convexity,can form a relatively smooth curve, more in line with actual rainfall.Then it combined with disaster assessment method, AHP, ARCGIS spa-tial processing method, weighted comprehensive evaluation method, the county as a unit, kilometers assess raster. The results showed that natural risks of Jiangsu Province increased gradually from south to north, mainly in the higher risk areas such as northern Jiangsu Suqian, Xuzhou, Huaian and other cities area, and the results consistent with the calendar year of the disaster.
作者
邹洁云
陈苏婷
ZOU Jie-yun, CHEN Su-ting （Key Laboratory of Jiangsu Province, Meteorological and Information Processing, Nanjing University of Information Science ＆ Technology, Nanjing 210044, China）
出处
《电脑知识与技术》
2014年第8期5380-5384,共5页
Computer Knowledge and Technology
基金
中国博士后科学基金(2011M500940)
中国博士后特别资助基金(2012T50510)
六大人才高峰资助项目(2013-DZXX-020)
江苏省高校自然科学重大基础研究项目(12KJA510001)
关键词
暴雨洪涝
江苏省
风险评估
样条插值法
ArcGIS
rainstorms and floods
ArcGIS
Jiangsu province
risk assessment
spline interpolation
