摘要
随着"单独二孩"政策的启动以及第一代独生子女进入生育年龄,中国将迎来新一轮"婴儿潮"。人口政策变动将对学前教育适龄人口规模及分布产生较大影响,须提前规划。分城乡预测学龄人口是制定教育发展规划的信息基础,本文基于第六次人口普查数据,对2013-2030年城乡学前教育阶段学龄人口进行预测。研究发现,2017年以前是学前教育发展的"机会窗口",若错过,则会在2017年迎来学龄人口高峰后面临异常严峻的挑战和困难;由于我国正处于城镇化加速期,城镇学前教育需求受人口政策影响更大,特别在2017-2020年间,城镇学前教育需求规模增速超过农村,尽管农村地区面临供需缺口同样巨大。在分析学前教育阶段适龄人口变动趋势与教育需求的基础上,本文进一步提出了相应的政策建议。
After the selective two-child policy implemented and the first generation under-child policy has reached the age of childbearing, China will get another baby boom. At the same time, China is undergoing an acceleration period of the urbanization, so the new population policy will impact the pre- school age population and the distribution between urban and rural, we must plan ahead. Making plan for future development of education should be based on the pre-school age population projection. After forecasting pre-school age population between 2013 and 2030, we found that years before 2017 is the window of opportunity for the development of pre-school development, if China fails to take advantage of the opportunity, the development of pre-school education will face tough challenges; pre-school education in urban areas will be impacted more by population policy, especially in 2017-2020, the demand scale in urban areas will exceeded in rural areas, although the gap between demand and supply is also huge in rural areas. Last, the thesis draws conclusions and comes up with relative policy suggestions.
出处
《全球教育展望》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第9期82-91,共10页
Global Education
基金
国家社会科学基金教育学重大(点)课题"跨越中等收入陷阱:教育的作用研究"(项目编号:AFA110002)研究成果
关键词
“单独二孩”政策
人口预测
学前教育适龄人口
教育需求
selective two-child policy
population projection
pre-school age population
education demand
