摘要
基于近10年国内外主要输油管道泄漏事故,分析输油管道泄漏事故后果,并结合已有的多米诺理论,判定输油管道泄漏事故多米诺效应发生情况。运用事件树方法建立输油管道泄漏事故多米诺效应模型,分析此类泄漏事故多米诺效应发生的不同途径及后果。最后通过专家判断法与模糊理论定量分析多米诺后果发生概率,对输油管道泄漏事故处理起到指导作用。
Based on the main oil pipeline leakage accidents occurred in nearly 10 years at home and abroad, the consequences of the leakage accidents are analyzed and it is judged whether the leakage accidents have Domino effect. The Domino effect model of the oil pipeline leakage accidents is established using event tree, and the ways and consequences of the Domino effect of the oil pipeline leakage accidents occurring are analyzed. Finally, the probability of the Domino effect of the oil pipeline leakage accidents occurring is quantitatively predicted using expert judgment method and fuzzy theory to guide dealing with the oil pipeline leakage accidents.
出处
《石油工业技术监督》
2014年第9期54-59,共6页
Technology Supervision in Petroleum Industry
