摘要
为辽宁西部的工农业生产提供参考，以辽宁西部地区（朝阳和叶柏寿）气象观测站1953-2012年降水数据为基础，采用现代气候统计诊断技术方法，对该地区降水量变化特征及非固定年际降水量变化趋势进行分析与研究。结果表明：1）1953-2012年，平均降水量为474 mm，极比为2．5，气候倾向率为-6．976 mm/10a，呈减少趋势。2）30年滑动序列，平均为450-485 mm；31个子序列中有16个子序列呈减少趋势，有15个子序列呈增加趋势。3）年际逐一增加序列，平均470-486 mm；31个子序列中有29个子序列呈减少趋势，2个子序列呈增加趋势。62个子序列的序列相关均未通过显著性检验，第1个30年（1953-1982年）和最近30年（1983-2012年）与60年（1953-2012年）序列平均降水量持平。辽西地区降水量减少趋势不明显，降水量及气候倾向率随着年际的变化而不同，节选年代不同对降水特征值的影响明显。
In order to provide a reference for industrial and agricultural production in the west of Liaoning,based on the precipitation data from 1953 to 2012 at the meteorological stations of Chaoyang and Yebaishou in the west of Liaoning,the characteristics of precipitation and the variation trend of non-fixed inter-annual precipitation in the region were analyzed by modern techniques of climate statistics diagnostic. Results：In the fixed inter-annual from 1953 to 2012,the precipitation with an average of 474 mm,pole ratio of 2.5 and climate trend rate of -6.976mm/10a was decreasing.In 30-year moving series,the average precipitation ranged from 450 to 485 mm,and among the 31 series there were 16 series showing a decreasing trend while the other 1 5 series showing an increasing trend.While the inter-annual increased one by one,the precipitation ranged from 470 to 486mm,and among the 31 series there were 29 series showed a decreasing trend while the other two series showed an increasing trend.The serial correlations of the 62 series did not pass the significance test.The average precipitation in the series of the first three decades （1953-1982 ） and the recent three decades （1983-2012 ） were the same with the average precipitation in the series of the six decades （1953-2012）.The precipitation in the west of Liaoning had no significant decreasing trend.With the inter-annual variation,the average and climate trend rate were variable,therefore,the difference of intercepting period had a significant impact on characteristic values of the precipitation.
出处
《贵州农业科学》
CAS
北大核心
2014年第9期102-105,共4页
Guizhou Agricultural Sciences
基金
辽宁省科技厅农业攻关项目"主要农业气象灾害发生规律及预警和评估机制研究"(2011210002)
关键词
降水量
年际
滑动平均
倾向率
辽宁
precipitation
inter-annual
moving average
trend rate
Liaoning
