摘要
运用协整的方法研究广东省东江流域近30年来总用水量与各行业用水量及流域来水量的长期关系,并建立了向量自回归模型对行业用水量和来水量的关系进行脉冲响应分析和方差分解。结果表明,东江流域总用水量的波动主要归因于生产用水的冲击,其对总用水量的方差贡献率之和长期达到91%以上,总用水量对来水的冲击呈现微弱负向响应;第二产业用水对自身和除第一产业用水外的行业用水波动影响强大而持久,为显著的正向响应,远大于各行业用水相互间的冲击。
Abst rca t：The cointegration method was used to study the long-term relationships between total water consumption , industrial water consumption , and basin inflow over the past 30 years in the Dongjiang River Basin , in Guangdong Province .The vector autoregressive （ VAR ） model was established for impulse response analysis and variance decomposition of the relationship between industrial water consumption and inflow .The results show that the fluctuation of total water consumption in the Dongjiang River Basin is mainly due to the impact of the production water, which accounts for over 91%of the variance contribution rate for a long time .The impact of the total water consumption on the basin inflow presents a slightly negative response .The secondary industrial water consumption has a significant and durable effect on itself and all other industrial water consumption except for the primary industry water consumption , showing a significantly positive response , which is much greater than the mutual impact of water consumption of various industries .
出处
《水资源保护》
CAS
2014年第5期44-51,共8页
Water Resources Protection
基金
国家自然科学基金(51210013
51379223)
水利部公益性行业科研专项(201301002-02)
关键词
用水量
向量自回归模型
脉冲响应
方差分解
东江流域
water consumption
vector autoregressive model
impulse response
variance decomposition
Dongjiang River Basin
