摘要
针对影响黑龙江省农业生产的延迟型低温冷害,探讨前人提出的东北地区低温冷害气候指标在黑龙江省的适用性,借鉴前人经验,考虑玉米和水稻种植面积不断北扩等因素,确定黑龙江省延迟型低温冷害气候指标的技术路线、判识临界值和计算方案。利用1961—2012年5—9月黑龙江省27个气象台站平均气温,以热量指数距平冷害判识指标为参照,考虑低温冷害指标与纬度、经度和海拔高度的密切关系,采用逐步回归法建立黑龙江省延迟型低温冷害气候指标。结果表明:该指标判识的低温冷害年与黑龙江省低温冷害的实际发生规律相符,并通过了验证,可作为监测指标;该指标所需数据量小,计算简便,具有实用性和推广价值;可采用该指标对黑龙江省低温冷害的历史发生规律进行分析。
For a problem of delayed cool injury that influences agricultural production in Heilongjiang province,we discussed an usability of climatic indexes of cool injury from literatures.The technical method,detecting critical value and calculation scheme for the climatic indexes of cool injury were determined with considering some factors such as planting area of maize and rice moving to north.Based on monthly mean temperature during May to Sep-tember from 1961 to 2012 at 27 meteorological stations in Heilongjiang province,the thermal index anomaly was used to detect cool injury.The cool injury indexes were closely related to latitude,longitude and altitude,thus the climatic indexes of the cool injury were established in term of a stepwise regression method.The results indicate that the estimated cool injury years determined by the climatic indexes are in a good agreement with the actual cool injury years.Thus,these indexes could be used as monitoring index.Also,the indexes only need minor input data and simple calculation,thus they have practicability and popularization.These indexes can be used to analyze the historical change of cool injury in Heilongjiang province.
出处
《气象与环境学报》
2014年第4期79-83,共5页
Journal of Meteorology and Environment
基金
公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201306036)资助
