摘要
文章基于我国31个省市1979—2011年的面板数据,以通货膨胀率作为门限变量,运用面板数据平滑转换回归模型,考察通货膨胀与经济增长之间的非线性关系。研究结果表明:通货膨胀与经济增长之间的关系存在非线性的通货膨胀率门限效应,当通货膨胀率低于门限值时,通货膨胀与经济增长正相关;而当通货膨胀率高于门限值时,通货膨胀与经济增长显著负相关。这意味着当通货膨胀率超过门限值时,通货膨胀不利于促进经济增长。
Based on China＇s 31 province-level panel data from 1979 to 2011, setting inflation as threshold variable and applying a panel smooth transition regression model, this paper investigates the nonlinear relationship between inflation and economic growth in China. Results indicate that there exists a nonlinear inflation threshold effect between inflation and economic growth. Inflation is positively correlated with economic growth when inflation below the threshold; while inflation above the threshold, it is statistically significant negatively correlated with economic growth. This implies that inflation is detrimental to economic growth when inflation above the threshold.
出处
《南开经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第4期112-122,共11页
Nankai Economic Studies
基金
中国博士后科学基金面上项目(2013M530448)
国家社会科学基金重点项目"我国中长期经济增长与结构变动趋势研究"(09AZD013)
国家开发银行课题"双重环流--开放经济下的中国资本流动"的资助
