摘要
考虑到水利工程的建设管理特点,在当前清单计价模式下,如何能够准确及时地知晓工程成本的风险因素、风险等级、风险发生概率等是施工单位必须努力解决的重要问题。在充分理解物元理论与可拓工程思想的基础上,对水利工程承包方面临的主要风险进行了识别和分析,选定特征集,确定评语集、节域及经典域。利用熵权的思想,确定评价指标的权重,确定建立水利工程项目可拓风险评估模型及风险等级,并分析出最主要的风险因素。案例分析表明,南水北调工程某标段的成本风险等级为j0=3,即风险较小,计算风险的等级变量特征值j*=2.9。严格意义上来说,该工程的风险等级为2.9,其风险趋向接近风险等级较小的那一级,即第4级,且最重要的风险为价格风险。
Considering characteristics of the water conservancy project management, how to know the risk factors on cost is an important problem that the construction enterprise must try to solve under the list valuation mode. Based on extension engineering and matter-element theory, cost risk factors which the contractor faced were analyzed including risk caused by owner, fluctuations in the trading environment, the construction company, the project itself, and other risk. Then feature set, evaluation set, classical domain, and joint domain were selected. Using the idea of entropy weight, the weights of evaluation indexes were determined. An extension assessment model for construction project cost risk was set up. Case analysis shows that by using this assessment mode, the level of cost risk was j0=3 which meant that the cost risk is lower, and characteristic value of risk rank was j＊=2.9. Strictly speaking, the risk rank of this project is 3 and the most important risk factor is price risk. Practice has proved that this mode has a significant effect on risk control.
出处
《工程管理学报》
2014年第5期47-51,共5页
Journal of Engineering Management
关键词
水利工程
成本风险
可拓评估模型
风险评估
water conservancy project
cost risk
extension assessment model
assessment
