摘要
本文围绕亚太市场煤炭价格波动对我国一般价格水平(CPI)是否存在影响这个问题进行研究。格兰杰因果检验表明,亚太市场煤炭价格波动能够影响我国一般价格水平,这种影响通过两种渠道进行传导,既可以通过生活资料直接影响CPI,也可以通过工业产业链影响PPI进而间接地影响CPI水平。此外,本文运用SVAR模型对该种影响进行了脉冲分析和方差分解研究,结果表明亚太市场煤炭价格的冲击对PPI和CPI分别存在4期的滞后时间;亚太市场煤炭价格的变动通过直接效应对CPI的影响稍大,间接效应相对较小。
Coal currently provides 69% of primary energy and 80% of electricity for China's economic development.China's economic development,industrialization and urbanization all demand the support of coal resource.Meanwhile,industrialization and urbanization drive the rapid growth in coal demand.This paper adopts the state-space model(SSM)approach to estimate the dynamic effects of three important sectors(real estate development,infrastructure construction and residential electricity)on coal demand in China.The results show that the driving effect of real estate development,infrastructure construction and residential electricity consumption on coal demand is remarkable.The driving effect of electricity consumption on coal demand shows a declining trend;that of infrastructure construction shows an upward trend;that of real estate development shows no clear trends but has fluctuations.
出处
《中国地质大学学报（社会科学版）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第6期30-38,152,共9页
Journal of China University of Geosciences(Social Sciences Edition)
基金
新华都商学院能源经济与低碳发展研究院项目"中国低碳可持续发展"
能源基金会中国可持续能源项目"An Optimum Designof Price
Tax and Finance System for China's Energy Sector"(G-1311-19436)
"现阶段经济转型和雾霾治理背景下的电力发展"(G-1404-20905)
教育部重大项目"中国能源发展报告"(10JBG013)
