摘要
本文基于政策不确定性条件下的投资决策理论模型,深入研究了政策不确定性对企业投资的影响。研究结果表明,政策不确定性对企业投资具有显著的负向效应,政策波动使得企业暂时推迟投资计划,避免预期收益下降。投资不可逆性使得政策不确定性与投资之间的负向关系表现更加强烈。在经济周期的不同阶段,政策不确定性的高低程度给企业投资带来的风险不同,在经济上升期,较低的政策不确定性对企业投资具有促进作用;而在经济下滑期,较高的政策不确定性对企业投资则具有显著抑制作用。
The outbreak of global financial crisis and the European sovereign debt crisis since 2008 make the global real economic growth fall sharply and the international economic situation worsen suddenly, affected by this, the economic growth suffered the rapid decline and the difficulties faced by the manufacturing sector was particularly serious in China. The central government continued to adjust macroeeonomic policies to cope with the severe impact of the financial crisis and make trade-offs between various economic indicators, leading to many adverse effects on economic activities in the microeconomic entities. Hence, the in-depth study of the effects of policy uncertainty on the microeconomic entities economic activities in current volatile economic situation has important practical significance in promoting the healthy development of the real economy.
Based on the theoretical model of investment decision under conditions of policy uncertainty, this paper exam- ined the impact of policy uncertainty on corporate investment with Chinese manufacturing listed companies panel data from the second quarter of 2004 to the third quarter of 2013, showing that policy uncertainty has a significant negative effect on the corporate investment in the whole sample interval. Policy uncertainty makes firms hard to form reasonable expectations and wait and see sentiment strengthened, the firms postpone investment plans or reduce the investment spending so as to avoid investing in volatile situation which led to the expected return of investment decline.
In China, the magnitude of policy uncertainty is closely related to the stages of business cycle, therefore, in this paper, the whole sample period is divided into two different stages of the business cycle, policy uncertainty is small in macroeconomic rise period from the second quarter of 2004 to the second quarter of 2008, while policy uncertainty is large in macroeconomie downturn period from the third quarter of 2008 to the third quarter of 2013. The magnitude of policy uncertainty has a different effect on the relationship between policy uncertainty and investment, in economic rise period, policy uncertainty could mean a better investment opportunity for firms and they can accept risky investments within the scope of minor damage, policy uncertainty has a significant positive effect on corporate investment. While in a recession period, most firms hold the pessimism sentiment about the future economic trends, they will reduce investments before the policy uncertainty disappeared, then policy uncertainty has a significant negative impact on corporate investments.
The fixed assets are the main investments in most China＇ s manufacturing firms and the secondary market transactions are not active, the adjustment cost of firms with a high level of fixed assets is relatively high, the irreversibility of manufacturing corporate investments is evident. With introducing the interaction of policy uncertainty variable and investment irreversibility variable in the basic firm investment model, this paper shows that investment irreversibility does exacerbate the negative effects of policy uncertainty on the manufacturing corporate investments. Facing the shocks of policy uncertainty, manufacturing firms with more irreversible investment are more likely to postpone investments to avoid risk, the negative relationship between policy uncertainty and investments is attributed to the delayed effects caused by real options to a large extent.
On the basis of above research, this paper argues that government departments should try to maintain macroeconomic policy stability and continuity, which make firms form coherent economic policy expectation and arrange the investment plans reasonably. The government should have close attention to the impact of policy uncertainty on manufacturing investment during the recession, and then accurately grasp the economic situation and enhance the transparency of macroeconomic policy. Meanwhile, the firms should establish internal management mechanism and improve the abilities of market competitiveness and resist external shocks so as to minimize the adverse impact of uncertainty on investment and the real economy.
出处
《经济管理》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第12期62-71,共10页
Business and Management Journal ( BMJ )
基金
国家自然科学基金青年项目"产能波动与库存调整的经济效应:一般均衡分析与非线性传导"(71403043)
教育部人文社会科学青年项目"外部冲击
结构失衡与我国制造业产能过剩问题:形成
影响及对策研究"(13YJC790036)
东北财经大学优秀科研创新人才项目"我国新一轮去产能的经济风险与经济效果研究"(DUFE2014R14)
关键词
政策不确定性
经济周期
不可逆性
企业投资
policy uncertainty
business cycles
irreversibility
corporate investment
