摘要
旅游资源是旅游业发展的主要物质载体，如何准确、科学地对其进行评估一直是学术界研究的重点和难点。本文以华山风景名胜区游憩价值的估计为例，将联立方程模型引入到个人旅行成本模型（ITCM）当中，解决了一般TCM估计中个体需求和旅行费用之间可能存在的内生性问题。通过建立理论模型和实证估计方程，本文发现，在过去关于TCM的研究中，由于内生性问题被忽视导致的个人消费者剩余往往被高估。研究重新计算得出华山风景名胜区旅游价值为每年14亿～22亿元，其中，人均年消费者剩余725～1157元，表明该地区旅游产业存在着巨大的潜在价值，有关部门可以制定相应的政策保证旅游产业科学发展。
Tourism resources are the main material carriers of the development in the tourism industry, and accurately assessing their value has become a key issue in academic research.
Currently in academia, empirical research on the recreation value of natural resources has mostly involved the travel cost method （TCM）. However, due to the inherent flaws of TCM, previous studies were often unable to solve the problem of inherent biases in estimation. Some studies may have made breakthroughs in accounting transportation costs, but they ignored the problem of multiple destinations. Some were innovative in accounting the opportunity cost of time but failed to take the problem of alternative attractions into consideration. Most studies in recent years have made substantial contributions to model selection, survey design, and methods of estimation, providing a useful reference for further studies ; few have addressed the problem of cost endogeneity problem. In this way, on the basis of previous studies, a travel cost model that focuses on solving the endogeneity problem in travel costs, travel time, and travel demands was here developed. Therefore, the estimation of recreational value of the Huashan Mountain Scenic Area served as an example to introduce the simultaneous equation model （SEM） into individual travel cost method （TCM） , which solves the endogeneity problem that might exist between individual needs and travel expenses in TCM estimations.
In this study, a pre-survey was conducted on all domestic tourists to Huashan Scenic Area in July 2013. After reviewing the pre-survey questionnaire and collecting suggestions from the tourists, the pre-survey questionnaire was modified to make it more representative of the issues raised. In August, an official survey was conducted. A total of 600 tourists visiting the Huashan Scenic Area were enrolled in this second survey with a modified questionnaire. After removing invalid questionnaire copies due to missing or incomplete information, 578 copies of completed questionnaire were included in the subsequent analysis.
To accurately evaluate the impact of each variable on tourism demand, an empirical econometric model was established based on the theoretical model analysis and used to estimate individual travel demand function and consumer surplus. The results of the estimation process show that an endogeneity problem exists in typical ITCM estimations, and the simultaneous equation model was notably more accurate and effective than the Poisson model. The per capita consumer surplus estimated using nonlinear simultaneous equation model was about 725 RMB, far lower than the value estimated using the Poisson model and also lower than some of the results obtained in relevant studies. The total consumer surplus of Huashan Scenic Area was 1.4 -2.2 billion RMB. This was also lower than the consumer surplus of Huangshan Scenic Spot and Taishan Scenic Spot as estimated in previous studies.
Potential values are indicated in the regional tourism industry, and relevant departments should develop appropriate policies to ensure the healthy development of the tourism industry. Relevant departments should provide good environments for the development of industry chains in the Huashan Scenic Area, thereby increasing its value, which in turn would increase industry revenue and achieve sound and rapid development of the whole industry chain. Accurate estimation of the non-market value of the scenic area offers relevant authorities a solid basis for making anti-subsidy policies and ecological compensation policies in the scenic area.
出处
《经济管理》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第12期116-124,共9页
Business and Management Journal ( BMJ )
关键词
旅行成本模型
内生性问题
联立方程模型
旅游产业
travel cost method （TCM）
endogeneities
simultaneous equation model
tourism industry
