摘要
种植业自然灾害风险模型是自然灾害风险定量评估服务于保险精算的重要桥梁,是种植业自然灾害保险公平性与可持续性的重要保障。本文介绍了种植业自然灾害保险精算对风险评估模型的具体需求,回顾并评述了近年来在种植业自然灾害风险模型中的主要进展,总结了四类主要建模方法。对模型发展趋向的研究表明,整合各类建模方法的优势,构建多灾种框架下、灾害事件建模为基础、作物生长模拟为手段的综合模型,准确定量评估各种(次)自然灾害造成的产量损失,有效区分保险责任覆盖的损失与其它损失,实现不同空间尺度的总损失风险估计与转换,是种植业自然灾害风险模型研究的主要方向。进一步开展种植业自然灾害综合风险研究,对构建中国自主知识产权的种植业自然灾害风险模型,以科技促进种植业自然灾害保险专业化发展具有重要意义。
The crop natural disaster risk model bridges quantitative risk assessment and insurance actuary for natu- ral disasters. It is the basis for the equity and sustainability of crop natural disaster insurance program. This article introduced the need of crop natural disaster insurance actuary to risk assessment models, reviewed the major pro- gress in developing crop natural disaster risk models in recent years, and summarized four typical modelling approa- ches. Study on the trend of model development indicates that the major direction is to integrate advantages of differ- ent modeling approaches, and develop comprehensive models with multi-hazard framework, disaster event-based structure, and crop growth simulation technique. The model should be able to quantitatively assess yield loss caused by different disaster type （event） , effectively distinguish insured loss and uninsured loss, enable the estimation of total loss risk at different spatial scales and allow spatial scaling of total loss risk. Further study on integrated crop natural disaster risk will significantly promote late the professionalization of crop insurance development of China crop natural disaster risk model, and stimu- industry with support of science and technology.
出处
《保险研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第10期12-23,共12页
Insurance Studies
基金
国家973课题"全球及中国环境风险适应性范式研究"(2012CB955404)
北京高等学校"青年英才计划"(YETP0287)
关键词
种植业自然灾害风险模型
定量风险评估
保险精算
crop natural disaster insurance model
quantitative risk assessment insurance actuary
