摘要
本文基于财政调整时期的内生划分方法,采用STR模型对于我国1980-2012年间财政政策非线性效应的实现机制与动态特征进行实证分析,结果发现:一是我国财政政策非线性效应主要是经由消费渠道发生,而且是通过影响消费者预期产生。二是财政政策非凯恩斯效应在不同条件下与财政政策工具之间的搭配组合存在一定差异。其中,当基本预算余额/潜在GDP小于临界值-0.045 0时,财政收入对居民消费需求存在非凯恩斯效应;反之,财政支出表现出一定程度的非凯恩斯效应。三是财政政策调整的幅度是居民消费需求非凯恩斯效应产生的重要因素,但财政政策调整的组成成分与政府的初始债务规模不是非凯恩斯效应产生的先决条件。本文研究结论不仅可以为政府制定财政政策提供理论依据与决策参考,还有助于改善我国财政政策实践的操作效率和运行效果。
Based on endogenous classification method in fiscal adjustment period, this paper used smooth transition regression models to study implementation mechanisms and dynamic characteristics of fiscal policy in 1980—2012. It came to the following conclusions. Firstly, the non-linear effect of fiscal policy changed through consumption channel and influenced the consumer expectations. Secondly, the combinations of no-Keynesian effect of fiscal policy under different conditions and the fiscal policy tools were certain differences. When the primary budget surplus/GDP was less than the critical value of —0. 045 0, fis- cal revenue had non-Keynesian effects on consumer demand. On the contrary, when the primary budget surplus/GDP was greater than the critical value of —0. 045 0, fiscal expenditure on consumer demand had non-Keynesian effects to some extent. In addition, the government＇s initial sizes of the debt and the magni- tude of the fiscal adjustments were not important factors to the non-linear effects of fiscal policy in our country. This paper provided the theoretical basis and decision reference for the government, and improved operational efficiency and operational effectiveness of fiscal policy in China.
出处
《经济理论与经济管理》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第12期44-55,共12页
Economic Theory and Business Management
基金
国家社会科学基金项目(10CJY016)
博士后基金项目(2012M520022)
安徽省自然科学基金面上项目
关键词
财政政策
非线性效应
STR模型
实现机制
动态特征
fiscal policy
non-linear effects
STR models
implementation mechanisms
dynamiccharacteristics
