摘要
基于WRF模式,研究了不同微物理和积云对流参数化方案对0908号台风"莫拉克"的路径移动、强度变化和降水过程模拟的敏感性。结果显示,积云对流参数化方案对台风"莫拉克"的路径和强度模拟起主导作用,采用Kain-Fritsch积云对流方案模拟的72 h平均路径误差较小;降水量的模拟主要取决于微物理参数化方案,而降水分布的好坏更依赖于积云对流参数化方案,而采用Thompson微物理和Grell-Devenyi积云对流方案的试验导致累积降水极值的偏干误差较大。积云对流方案对环境场和潜热释放模拟存在差异,导致路径和强度、温度廓线和垂直运动的模拟结果不同,而微物理方案对不同相态降水粒子的垂直分布结构模拟存在差异,从而导致降水模拟的差别。此外,由不同试验构造的集合平均能减少单个成员模拟路径和降水的不确定性,特别在强降水方面能减小空报数和漏报数,提高TS评分,改善模拟效果。
The track,intensity and precipitation of Typhoon Morakot are simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting （WRF） model.The impacts of microphysics and cumulus convective parameterization schemes on simulation have been explored.The results show that the track and intensity simulation is more sensitive to cumulus parameterization schemes and the Kain-Fritsch cumulus scheme performs best on the 72 h-average track simulation.Cumulus convective schemes influence the spatial distribution of precipitation,while microphysics schemes affect the precipitation amount.The simulations underestimate the 72 h maximum accumulated precipitation,especially when using the Thompson microphysics scheme and the Grell-Devenyi cumulus scheme.The simulated environmental circulation and latent heating in different cumulus schemes cause the diversities of track,intensity,vertical temperature structure and vertical motion,which can also affect precipitation amount.The vertical distribution and phase of precipitation particles lead to different precipitation amounts in different microphysics parameterizations.Meanwhile,the ensemble mean of combining various experiments can reduce the systematic errors,increase the reliability of the simulation and improve the modeling of extreme torrential precipitation.The ensemble method also reduces the miss and false alarm numbers of rainfall events,and therefore improves the Threat Scores of extreme torrential precipitation.
出处
《热带气象学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2014年第5期941-951,共11页
Journal of Tropical Meteorology
基金
国家973项目(2013CB430106)
公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201206005)
国家自然科学基金(41175087)共同资助
关键词
天气学
强降水
数值模拟
积云对流参数化
微物理参数化
台风“莫拉克”
集合平均
synoptic meteorology
extreme heavy precipitation
numerical simulation
cumulus convective parameterization
microphysics parameterization
Typhoon Morakot
ensemble mean
