摘要
利用线性倾向率和Mann-Kendall非参数检验及克里金(Kriging)空间插值法,分析石羊河流域气温、降水量和蒸发量3个气候要素的年代际时空变化特征。结果表明:1960—2009年石羊河流域气温最小增速为0.25℃/10 a,高于中国及全球平均增速,且石羊河流域东部地区增温速度大于流域西部;20世纪60年代石羊河流域气温为降低趋势,其他年代流域大部地区均为增温趋势,且这种增温趋势是突变的。石羊河流域各年代及50 a平均降水量流域西部地区均比东部地区增加明显,近50 a石羊河流域降水量的变化趋势大多数未通过显著性检验,流域降水量的变化是由于降水的年际振荡造成的。石羊河流域大部地区的蒸发量呈先减少后增加的趋势。除民勤外,流域各地区蒸发量的减少或增加均存在突变。石羊河流域气温持续升高和蒸发量增加及二者的协同关系可能导致区域干旱的加剧。
Based on daily temperature,precipitation and evaporation data at five meteorological observation stations in Shiyang river basin,temporal and spatial characteristics of interdecadal variability of three elements were ana-lyzed by methods of a liner tendency rate,a Mann-Kendall test and a Kriging interpolation.The results indicate that the minimum increasing rate of air temperature is 0.25 ℃ per decade from 1960 to 2009 in Shiyang river basin, and it is higher than that in the whole China and the globe.Increasing rate of air temperature is higher in the east-ern area than in the western area of the study area.Air temperature is in a decreasing trend in 1960s in Shiyang riv-er basin,while it is in an increasing trend during 1970s to 2000s in most areas of this basin.Besides,temperature increase has a mutation phenomenon in Shiyang river basin.Interdecadal precipitation and its average are higher in the western area than in the eastern area.However,increasing rate of precipitation in Shiyang river basin rarely rea-ches significant level,and precipitation change is caused by its interannual oscillation.Evaporation in most areas of Shiyang river basin increases first and then decreases in the past fifty years.Evaporation has an abrupt change phe-nomenon in Shiyang river basin,except at Minqin.Drought could become severe in this region because of continu-ous increase temperature and evaporation as well as both cooperation relations.
出处
《气象与环境学报》
2014年第5期131-140,共10页
Journal of Meteorology and Environment
基金
兰州干旱气象研究所科研启动项目(KYS2012SSKY05)
兰州干旱气象研究所科研基本业务费项目(KYYWF201323)共同资助
关键词
气温
降水量
蒸发量
突变分析
Air temperature
Precipitation
Evaporation
Mutation analysis
