摘要
整理出1986-2013年宁波港口货物吞吐量和集装箱吞吐量数据以及宁波市历年的第二产业产值数据,并对数据进行了合理化处理。协整检验表明三个变量存在协整关系。随后构建平稳的无约束VAR模型,进行脉冲响应分析、方差分解和格兰杰因果检验。实证研究结果表明:宁波港口货物吞吐量与第二产业高度相关,集装箱吞吐量与第二产业的相关关系较小;宁波大宗商品物流进出口对宁波第二产业贡献度较大;应正确看待宁波集装箱吞吐量与第二产业发展的关系;应深化"三位一体"港航物流服务体系建设,构建高效的第二产业供应链。
The article unscrambles the cargo throughput and container throughput data of Ningbo port and the second industry output value of Ningbo from 1986 to 2013, and the data were analyzed by？ the？ reasonable？ processing. Cointegrafion test shows that there is cointegration relationship between three variables. Then the article builds smooth unconstrained VAR model, impulse response analysis, variance decomposition and Gralnger causality test. The empirical results show that： Ningbo port cargo throughput and the second industry are highly related, while the correlation between container throughput and the second industry is small, Ningbo commodity logistics has much contribution to the second industry; we should correctly view the relationship between Ningbo container throughput and the second industry development; we should deepen ＂three-in-one＂ port logistics service system construction and slructure efficient secondary industry supply chain.
出处
《宁波广播电视大学学报》
2014年第3期25-29,共5页
Journal of Ningbo Radio & TV University
基金
浙江省社科联研究项目(2013N079)
宁波市现代物流规划研究院研究项目(2013NBWGY015)
关键词
宁波港
港口货物吞吐量
集装箱吞吐量
第二产业
Ningbo port
Port cargo throughput
Container throughput
The second industry
