摘要
引入灰精度指标,基于加权马尔可夫链理论对灰色模型进行改进,并以2000—2011年我国人均水资源量为基础,建立预测模型进行实证分析.结果表明,与传统的灰色预测相比,平均相对误差由15.94%降低为4.05%,较好地提高了预测的精度.
The Grey precision index and improved Grey model was introduced based on the weighted Markovtheory. The weighted Markov correction model was built based on the per capita water resources in China from 2000 to2011. Compared with the traditional grey prediction,the test results show that the average relative error is reducedfrom 15.94% to 4.05%,and the prediction accuracy is obviously improved.
出处
《河南科学》
2014年第11期2332-2336,共5页
Henan Science
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(U1204104)
河南省教育厅科学技术研究重点项目(13B120263)
关键词
加权马尔可夫链
人均水资源
随机波动
预测
weighted Markov chain
per capita available water resources
random fluctuation
prediction
