摘要
以昆明市为研究区域,基于系统论思想构建城市协调发展评价体,采用比较分析法、person相关分析法、格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应系数、偏差系数法对昆明市2000—2010年城市产业结构和用地结构的动态变化及其耦合关系进行了综合研究。结果表明:昆明市产业结构与用地结构之间经历了非同步变化后逐渐步入同步变化的轨迹,两者间存在长期稳定的相关性。从短期看,昆明市用地结构变化是产业结构变化的格兰杰原因,但产业结构变化与城市用地结构变化间不存在因果性关系,即城市用地结构与产业结构的有机耦合状态并不显著。在现阶段发展中,昆明市产业结构变化滞后于用地结构变化,两者间还未达到耦合协调的发展状态。
The coordinated development of city industrial structure and the development of the land use structure was the key to improve the efficiency of land city, and to promote the industrial structure sustainable premise and guarantee of optimizing the whole function and city promotion. This paper took Kunming City as the study area, the system theory was constructed to evaluate the city coordinated development, and used the method of comparative analysis, person correlation analysis, Grainger causality test, pulse of Kunming City during 2000 - 2010, industrial structure and the dynamic changed and the coupling relationship between structure of comprehensive was inquiry response coefficient and deviation coefficient method. The results showed that Kunming City industrial structure and land use structure experienced a non synchronous change gradually into the synchronous trajectories of change, the correlation between the long - term stable. In the short term, change in land use structure in Kunming City was the Grainger reason of industrial structure change, but the change of industrial structure of Kunming City land structure change was no causality relationship, namely city with organic coupling state structure and the industrial structure was not significant. At the present, the stage of development, industrial structure change in Kunming compared with the structure of land use change with a lag, between the two did not yet reached the state coupling coordinated de- velopment. The results showed that the city industrial structure and causal coupling relationship structure in order to adjust, should be implemented in the coordination of long - term.
出处
《资源开发与市场》
CAS
CSSCI
2015年第1期12-16,共5页
Resource Development & Market
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(编号:41361042)
教育部人文社科研究青年基金项目(编号:12YJCZH159)
云南师范大学大学生科研训练基金项目(编号:Ky2013-160)联合资助
关键词
产业结构
用地结构
关联性
格兰杰因果检验
industrial structure
land use structure
correlation
Grainger causality test
