摘要
针对经典报童模型决策者风险中性假设,引进浪费规避偏差和缺货规避偏差来研究零售商的订购行为。通过仿真实验得出零售商在低利润场景和高利润场景中分别受到缺货规避偏差、浪费规避偏差的影响,其订购行为呈现出均值偏向现象。从零售商决策行为的角度解释均值偏向现象,发现零售商在库存决策时先锚定在报童模型最优解上再向需求分布均值方向进行调整,其调整力度与浪费规避系数和缺货规避系数显著相关,且调整行为符合前景理论价值函数曲线的特征,通过仿真实验拟合出库存决策中调整行为价值函数曲线,并给出降低零售商规避偏差的建议。
Airning at the risk-neutral assumption of decision maker in newsvendor model, the waste-averse preierence and the stockout-averse preference were introduced to research the retailers＇ inventory order behavior, and the result showed that the retailer＇s decision behavior was impacted by waste-averse preference and stockout-averse preference. The order quantity was positive with the stockout-averse preference and negative with the waste averse preference. The simulation experiment indicated that the retailers were influenced by stockout-averse and waste-averse prefer- ence in low-profit/high-profit scene respectively, and the pull to center phenomena was appeared in retailer＇s order behavior. The pull to center phenomena was explained from the viewpoint of retailer＇s decision behavior, and it was found that the retailer anchored on the optimal solution of newsvendor model and then adjusted to the direction of demand distribution mean when they did the inventory decision. The degree of adjustment was impacted by the coefficient of waste-averse preference and stockout-aversc preference, and adjustment behavior was accorded with the characteristics of prospect theory value function curve. Fitting the value function curves of inventory adjustment be- havioral was fitted though simulation experiments, and some advice to reduce the averse preference were given.
出处
《计算机集成制造系统》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2014年第10期2582-2598,共17页
Computer Integrated Manufacturing Systems
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(71377156
71201134)~~
关键词
前景理论
报童模型
库存决策行为
浪费规避偏差
缺货规避偏差
prospect theory
newsvendor mode
inventory decision-making behavior
waste-averse preference
stock-out-averse preference
