摘要
基于标准化降水指数（StandardizedPrecipitationIndex，SPI）方法，分析了盐城市1960～2009年间的旱涝演变特征。结果显示：①年降水量呈减少趋势，但年际变幅大，以20世纪70年代、80年代偏低，60年代、90年代偏高。1-3月、6月、11～12月降水呈增加趋势，其余月份为减少趋势。②多时间尺度SPI皆可监测旱涝变化，SP13、SP16对年内旱涝暴发时间与持续影响更为敏感。不同季节SPI的年代际差异显著，SPI冬季呈增加趋势，其余季节及年SPI皆为减小趋势。⑧SP11、SP13、SP16的变率较稳定，而SP112变率显著偏大。年与夏季SPI变率高度相似，但春季与秋季SPI变率的变幅偏大。④多时间尺度SPI皆以3～15月的周期为主，但SPl6、SPll2还有较稳定的16～32个月长周期。而年与不同季节SPI则以3a、6a左右周期为主，并具10a左右的中尺度周期及20a左右的长周期。
Flood and drought evolution during 1960-2009 in Yancheng City is analyzed using the Standardized Precipitation Index （SPI）. Results show that large fluctuation amplitude can be seen in annual precipitation with a slightly decreasing trend detected. An upward trend can be found in January, February, March, June, No- vember and December, while the rest months show a downward trend. Flood and drought can be monitored us- ing multi-scale SPI method, SPI3, SPI6 are more sensitive to the occurrence period and continuous effect of flood and drought. Frequent alteration of flood and drought in 1960s and 1990s can be examined both by annu- al and seasonal SPI, but drought is quite stable in 1980s. A significant difference can be seen in decadal change of seasonal SPI, and SPI in winter shows an increasing trend while decreasing trend in the rest seasons and an- nual SPI. Variation in SPI1, SPI3 and SPI6 is stable while variation is larger in SPI12. Variation in annual and summer SPI shows a highly similar change process, while it has relatively larger change amplitude in spring and autumn SPI. A period at about 3-15 months can be checked for multi-scale SPI change; however, a period at about 16-32 months is quite stable in SPI6 and SPI12. A period at about 3-6 years is stable both in annual and seasonal SPI which accompanied with 10 and 20 years period.
出处
《地理科学》
CSCD
北大核心
2014年第4期479-487,共9页
Scientia Geographica Sinica
基金
国家自然科学基金重点项目(40730635)
水利部公益性行业科研专项经费项目(200901042)
教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目(10YJC790342)
江苏省教育厅高校哲社科学研究(2011SJB790005)
江苏省高校"青蓝工程"优秀青年骨干教师项目资助
关键词
降水
标准化降水指数
旱涝演变
盐城
江苏沿海地区
precipitation
Standardized Precipitation Index
flood and drought evolution
Yancheng City
thecoastal region of Jiangsu Province
