摘要
目的探索用不同方法评估中山市男男性行为人群(MSM)的艾滋病病毒(HIV)新发感染率的有效性,评估中山市MSM艾滋病疫情流行形势。方法综合利用中山市人口学、哨点监测,自愿咨询检测(VCT)门诊、CD+4T淋巴细胞(简称CD4细胞)计数检测和BED捕获酶免疫试验(BED-CEIA)数据,分别采用Spectrum/EPP模型、BED-CEIA、首次CD4细胞计数和队列研究,估计2010-2013年MSM的HIV新发感染率。结果 Spectrum/EPP模型估计:中山市MSM 2010年新发感染率为1.85%,2011、2012和2013年维持在1.91%;BED-CEIA估算:2010-2013年新发感染率分别为9.14%、5.19%、10.86%和7.90%。首次CD4细胞计数估算:2010-2013年新发感染率分别为1.88%、1.99%、3.06%和2.01%。2010-2013年,VCT门诊125名MSM的开放队列,合计观察150人年,4例HIV抗体阳转,发病密度2.67/100人年。结论 Spectrum/EPP模型、首次CD4细胞计数和队列研究估计得到的2010-2013中山市MSM新发感染率相近;BED-CEIA估计得到的结果高于其他三种方法,存在高估的可能。
Objective To explore the validity of different methods to estimate the HIV incidence among men who have sex with men （MSM） in Zhongshan, and provide reasonable evidence for HIV epidemic estimation. Methods Based on the data of demography, sentinel surveillance, voluntary counseling and testing （VCT）, CD4^＋ T-cell counts and BED-capture enzyme immunoassay （BED-CEIA）, Spectrum/EPP model, BED-CEIA, first CD4 ^＋ T-cell counts and cohort study were used to estimate the HIV incidence among MSM in Zhongshan, 2010-2013. Results Among MSM in Zhongshan, HIV incidence rate was 1.85% in 2010, and maintained at 1.91% during 2011 to 2013 by the Spectrum/EPP model. The estimated HIV incidence from 2010 to 2013 were 9.14%, 5.19%, 10.86% and 7.90%, respectively, By BED-CEIA, and those were 1.88%, 1.99%, 3.06% and 2.01%, respectively, based on the first CD4^＋ T-cell counts. During 2010 to 2013, the VCT clinics enrolled 125 MSM in an open cohort. Of the 150 person-years followed up, 4 became HIV seroconversion, with the HIV-incidence of 2.67 per 100 person-years. Conclusion The three methods including Spectrum/EPP model, first CD4^ ＋ T-cell counts and cohort study got simi- lar estimated HIV incidence among MSM in Zhongshan from 2010 to 2013, while the BED-CEIA got much higher HIV incidence estimation, which might be overestimated.
出处
《中国艾滋病性病》
CAS
2014年第11期831-834,共4页
Chinese Journal of Aids & STD
基金
国家"十二五"重大专项(2012ZX10004-902)~~
关键词
艾滋病病毒
新发感染率
评价
男男性行为人群
Human immunodeficiency virus
Incidence
Estimation
Men who have sex with men
