摘要
水资源需求预测对于经济社会发展规划和供水规划与管理至关重要，不合理的预测可能会误导水利规划和供水工程建设规模；从用水户的角度出发去揭示其不同层次的真实需水，可提高需水预测结果的合理性。通过对水资源需求内涵和影响因子的详细分析，引入马斯洛需求层次理论初步建立了基本、发展、和谐层次的水资源需求层次理论，并从生活、生产、生态三方面分别探讨不同层次的真实需水。以普洱市为例进行了不同层次的需水预测实践，2020年50％、75％、90％和95％的来水频率，发展层次下的河道外总需水预测量较相关规划成果分别偏小28．2％、22．6％、22．6％和18．1％，基本层次下的预测成果偏小更多，和谐层次下的预测成果也偏小1．8％～13．8％；75％来水频率，发展层次下需水量与“人均综合用水量法”预测结果基本相当，整体偏小0．8％～1．7％。预测结果表明不同频率、不同层次下的预测成果比常规预测结果整体上偏小，弥补了常规预测总是偏大的不足。
The accurate forecasting of water demand is highly crucial for both economic and social development planning and water supply planning and management. Any very large or small water demand forecasts that are a result of blind predictions will bring different degrees of misdirection to water conservancy planning and water supply project construction and lead to very serious consequences. Therefore, there is a need to predict the different levels of actual water demands from the perspective of the water user. This paper firstly analyzes the connotations and impact factors of water resources demand; then, Maslow＇s Hierarchy of Needs Theory is introduced and a preliminarily water resources demand hierarchy theory is established; then, the different levels of actual water demands are discussed from the perspectives of life, production and ecology; finally, taking Puer as an example, the demand for water is forecasted from different hierarchies. In 2020, under the water frequency of 50%, 75%, 90% and 95%, the total quantity of the water demand forecast outside a river under the development level is smaller by 28.2%, 22. 6%, 22.6% and 18. 1% respectively when compared with planning results; while that under the basic level is even smaller. Under the harmonious level, the forecast results are smaller by 1.8%--13.8%. Under the water frequency of 75%, water demands under the development level are overall smaller by about 0. 8%--1. 7% , almost the same as the forecast results obtained by using the method of integrated water consumption per capita. The results show that the forecast results under different frequencies and different levels are generally smaller than conventional ones, which makes up for the deficiency of the conventional forecasting that is always larger.
出处
《水科学进展》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2014年第6期897-906,共10页
Advances in Water Science
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(51109138)
水利部公益性行业科研专项经费资助项目(201301002)~~
关键词
水资源
需求内涵
影响因子
需求层次理论
普洱市
water resources
connotation of demand
impact factors
hierarchy of needs theory
Puer city
