摘要
在估算中国年度潜在产出水平和产出缺口时对状态空间模型方程的设定形式进行了一定的创新改进。首先,用传统柯布—道格拉斯生产函数来决定潜在产出,这样能够更好体现出潜在产出供给方面的含义;其次,生产函数中的技术水平在模型中作为状态变量,同时加入了一些外生变量来解释中国技术水平的变化;第三,模型中不仅考虑了国内的影响因素,同时加入了开放经济条件下对潜在产出可能产生影响的一些变量。
This paper makes some improvements about equation specification in state space model when estimating the level of China ’ s annual potential output and the output gap .Firstly , the paper uses traditional Cobb -Douglas production function to determine the potential output , which can reflect supply -side meaning of the potential output better.Secondly , technology level of the production function works as a state variable in the model , and a number of exogenous variables are added to explain the changes in China ’ s technology level.Meanwhile, the model considers not only the domestic contributing factors , but also some variables which may have an impact on potential output in open economy .
出处
《经济问题》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第12期30-36,共7页
On Economic Problems
关键词
潜在产出
技术进步
生产函数
状态空间模型
potential output
technology progression
production function
state space model
