摘要
以火灾持续时间和火灾周围受热时间为基准建立引发多米诺效应的判定依据;结合贝叶斯网络模型,建立了确定事故模式传播途径的算法。采用Probit模型对储罐超压爆炸引发多米诺事故进行了风险分析。针对实际案例,在假设火灾爆炸事故场景的基础上,进行应用分析。得到了火灾环境下发生多米诺效应的不同途径的概率以及爆炸事故后果的个人风险和社会风险。
The time from fire duration and time for healing the surrounding was treated as judgment basis for Domino effect, In combination with Bayesian network model, the algorithm of determining the mode of accident transmission was established. The Probit model was used to analyze the risk of Domino effect caused by overpressure explosion. Finally this methodology was applied to a case study based on hypothetical fire explosion accident scene. The probabilities of the domino effect of different ways were obtained, and the individual risk and social risk of the domino effect was presented.
出处
《消防科学与技术》
CAS
北大核心
2014年第12期1453-1456,共4页
Fire Science and Technology
