摘要
利用DIVA-GIS软件对中国栓皮栎的地理分布及气候特征进行研究,并用该软件中的Bioclim和Domain两个模型评估未来潜在分布区对气候变暖的响应.结果表明：中国栓皮栎分布区可分为横断山脉区、云贵高原区、华北山地区、华东山丘区、辽鲁半岛区、台湾海岛区和秦岭巴山区7个亚区,跨越7个温度带、2个干湿区、17个气候区,包括8种气候类型.秦岭-大巴山-伏牛山为栓皮栎的现代多度中心.适合栓皮栎生长的年平均温度为7.5~19.8℃,年降雨量为471~1511 mm.Domain和Bioclim模型的受试者工作特征曲线下的面积（AUC值）分别为0.910、0.779,前者预测的高度适生区为秦岭、大巴山、伏牛山、桐柏山、大别山、云贵高原东部和西部、苏皖南部丘陵和华北部分山地.气候变暖趋势下栓皮栎潜在分布区可能向北回缩,面积减小.
The geographical distribution of Quercus variabilis in China with its climate characteris- tics was analyzed based on DIVA-GIS which was also used to estimate the response of future poten- tial distribution to global warming by Bioclim and Domain models. Analysis results showed the geo- graphical distribution of Q. variabilis could be divided into 7 subregions： Henduan Mountains, Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, North China, East China, Liaodong-Shandong Peninsula, Taiwan Island, and and Qinling-Daba Mountains. These subregions are across 7 temperature zones, 2 moisture regions climatic subregions, including 8 climate types. The modem abundance center of Q. variabi- lis is Qinling , Daba and Funiu mountains. The condition of mean annual temperature 7.5-19.8 ℃ annual precipitation 471-1511 mm, is suitable for Q. variabilis. Areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve （AUC values） of Domain and Boiclim models were 0.910, 0. 779; the former predicted that the potential regions of high suitability for Q. variabilis are Qinling, Daba, Funiu, Tongbai, and Dabie mountains, eastern and western Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, hills of southern Jiangsu and Anhui, part of the mountains in North China. Global warming might lead to the shrink- ing in suitable region and retreating from the south for Q. variabilis.
出处
《应用生态学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2014年第12期3381-3389,共9页
Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(31370666)
江苏省高校协同创新计划项目(CIP)
江苏高校优势学科建设工程项目(PAPD)资助
关键词
栓皮栎
DIVA-GIS
地理分布
潜在分布区
Quercus variabilis
DIVA-GIS
geographic distribution
potential distribution area.
