摘要
为探究南方地区粮食短缺的原因,以西南岩溶山地灌丛草业生态经济区、东南常绿阔叶林—丘陵灌丛草业生态经济区为研究对象,分析南方地区粮食的供给和需求状况。结果表明,从2000年至2009年10年间,我国南方地区的粮食产量基本稳定在22000万t左右,口粮消费量逐年下降,从2000年的13850万t减少到2009年的10677万t,因此口粮需求不是导致南方地区粮食供不应求的原因。2009年,南方地区饲料用粮7991.6万t,占南方地区粮食总产量的33.9%;工业用粮6234.1万t,占粮食总产量的26.8%。口粮、饲料用粮和工业用粮构成了南方地区粮食总需求的三大部分,其中非食用粮约占据粮食总需求的57.3%,是影响粮食安全的主要因素。2009年粮食供需差额至少为1419.3万t,这意味着2009年北方地区向南方地区至少调运了1419.3万t粮食,存在巨大的运输成本和机会成本,同时浪费了283.9万m3的虚拟水资源。而以"大粮食,大资源,集约型"为理念的草地农业可充分利用生态资源和土地资源,节约饲料用粮、补充口粮,降低粮食需求的同时增加粮食供给,且南方地区光照差、多山地,有发展草地农业的比较优势,因此,在南方地区发展适宜的草地农业模式是解决南方地区粮食短缺问题的合理途径。
In order to discover the reasons for food shortages in Southern China, this paper analyses grain sup ply and demand in the Southwest karst shrub land and Southeast forest-shrubland regions. From 2000 to 2009, Southern China^s grain output remained stable at approximately 220 million tons. Grain ration consumption, on the other hand, declined from 138.50 million tons in 2000 to 106.77 million tons in 2009. This result shows that food shortage is not caused by ration consumption. In 2009, Southern China＇s forage grain amounted to 79.9 million tons, accounting for 33.9% of total grain yield. In the same year, industry grain amounted to 62.3 million tons and 26.8% of total production. Grain ration, forage grain and industry grain constitute the three parts of total grain demand in Southern China, while non-food grain accounts for about 57.3% of the to-tal demand for grain and is the main factor affecting food security. The difference between grain supply and de mand in 2009 was some 14.2 million tons, which means that at least this amount required transportation from north to south, a situation that involves substantial costs, as well as effectively wasting about 2.8 million m3 of water resources. If successfully applied to Southern China^s grassland agriculture, the concept of ＂large grain, large resource, intensive agriculture＂ could make better use of ecological resources, protect the consumption of forage grain and supplementary grain rations, reduce grain demand and increase grain supply at the same time. Furthermore, the sunlight intensity of Southern China is low, giving its grasslands many comparative advanta- ges. The paper thus concludes that developing suitable grassland agriculture models is a reasonable way to solve the problem of food shortages in Southern China.
出处
《草业学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2015年第1期4-11,共8页
Acta Prataculturae Sinica
基金
长江学者和创新团队发展计划(IRT13019)
教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(10YJAZH047)
中国工程院重大咨询项目“中国草地的生态保障与食物安全”资助
