摘要
国内学者在旅游时间序列的季节性特征方面具有广泛的研究,但多数是从纵向时间角度分析旅游时间序列自身较为外显的季节性特征,而对旅游时间序列自身相对较为隐性的季节性特征到目前为止鲜有研究。基于此,文章以城市入境旅游时间序列为例,从季节性单位根入手,通过分析杭州市入境旅游人天样本数据,获得杭州入境旅游时间序列的隐性季节特征。研究结果表明,杭州入境旅游人天数据时间序列是一个非平稳性的随机季节过程,其季节性特征显著,具有一个非季节性单位根以及5个季节性单位根。
Many macroeconomic time series have features of seasonality. In the tourism industry, seasonality is one of the most significant features, and is frequently studied. Seasonality significantly affects the tourism industry in many ways, impacting on tourism demand, tourism supply, tourism industry operational model, and the tourist travel model. Deeper analysis of tourism seasonality, especially if carried out on inbound tourism data, would be helpful for policy makers in their understanding of the internal workings of the tourism industry, and would assist them to make more sensible decisions in dealing with the negative effects of seasonality. Domestic scholars have carried out extensive research on tourism seasonality from different perspectives. On the one hand, many have studied the internal causes of seasonality, the characteristics of its impact on industry performance, and other influences relating to this factor using qualitative research methods. On the other hand, some scholars have analyzed the characteristics of tourism seasonality, such as the low season, normal season and peak season, using degree of monthly difference and so on; and these are relatively dominant and external features of seasonality. Most of the latter studies use the methods including curve analysis, the monthly index, and variations in Gini coefficients. In these studies, we can visually see the obvious seasonal patterns of the tourism time series, and make some useful and meaningful conclusions. However, this information is not enough to effectively offer help in further analysis. So it is very necessary to study this question using more sophisticated quantitative methods, and obtain more internal and deeper information on seasonality features by using mathematical and econometric modelling techniques. By using information acquired in this way, it is possible to apply more accurate smoothing methods into a tourism time series, to predict time series data more exactly, and to more accurately analyze the relationships in time series data. Based on these considerations, we introduce the seasonal unit root method, and use the HEGY teston monthly data to obtain internal information about the seasonality patterns in tourism time series data. We take inbound tourism data from Hangzhou as a case study, and analyze the interior seasonal characteristics of urban inbound tourism demand. First, we reviewed research on this topic in the existing domestic and international literature, and found that the majority of previous studies have concentrated on qualitative research of tourism seasonality. Not many scholars have adopted relatively simple quantitative methods as an alternative. We thus first stress the findings and limitations of current research in this paper. Second, we give a brief introduction to the methodology relating to unit root tests and seasonal unit root tests, and explain their relationships. We stress the importance of using seasonal unit root methods in analysing seasonal time series. In the third part of this paper, we present three widely used seasonal models of seasonal time series： deterministic seasonal process, random seasonal process with stationarity, and random seasonal process with non-stationarity. In the next section we use the Hangzhou inbound tourism data in these models to determine the most suitable seasonal patterns for Hangzhou inbound tourism. Finally, by using the seasonal unit root methods and the HEGY test, we are better able to understand the internal factors in the seasonality of Hangzhou inbound tourism data. The results show that the inbound tourism data of Hangzhou depict a random seasonal process, and the seasonal characteristics are significant. One non-seasonal unit root and five seasonal unit roots exist in the time series of Hangzhou inbound tourism.
出处
《旅游学刊》
CSSCI
北大核心
2015年第1期63-71,共9页
Tourism Tribune
基金
国家社会科学基金面上项目(11BGL052)"海峡两岸旅游综合服务质量评估模型及其应用研究"资助~~
关键词
旅游季节性
季节性单位根
HEGY检验
tourism seasonality
seasonal unit roots
HEGY test
time series
