摘要
使用单个目标原因和单个效果的图形集中范式呈现协变关系,探讨实质取样增量(12.5%<50%<87.5%<100%)对因果强度估计的影响,结果显示:(1)实质取样增加在Power-PC=.50和1的协变关系上导致高强度估计,在Power-PC=0的协变关系上导致低强度估计;(2)相同实质取样增量对被试在具有不同Power-PC值协变关系上的强度估计有不同的影响。结果说明高实质取样促使被试做出符合理性预期的强度估计,混合假设可以解释被试的强度估计偏离Power-PC值的现象。
Liljeholm ＆ Cheng （2009） found out that virtual samples predicted participants＇ causal inferences on contingency with Power-PC larger than zero but they had no knowledge about whether the virtual samples would also predict causal inferences on contingency with Power-PC equal to zero or whether the same increment of virtual samples would lead to the same increment of causal judgment. We conducted two experiments to probe the influence of the same increment of virtual sample on causal strength estimate on contingency with Power-PC equal to zero and Power-PC larger than zero. In total, 41 participants served in Experiment 1 and adopted the and 43 participants served in Experiment 2 and adopted the prevent-contingency. Experiments were designed as 2 （exact sample： 16, 64） x 3（Power-PC： 0, 0.50, 1） x 4 （virtual sample： 12.5%, 50%, 87.5%, 100%） repeated measures. Three levels of virtual samples, 12.5%, 50% and 87.5%, were designed to test the influence of the same increment of virtual samples, and three levels of Power-PC, 0, 0.50 and 1, were designed to test the participants＇ causal strength estimates on contingency with Power- PC equal to zero and Power-PC larger than zero. The experimental material was a booklet that included one exercise contingency to ensure that the participants understood the experiment task and 24 randomly arranged experiment contingencies to obtain participant＇s causal strength estimate. Participants were given their strength estimates under each contingency presented by the summate format. Results show that： a） participants＇ strength estimate changes in the same way with the virtual sample size for contingency with Power-PC equal to 1 and 0.50, but in the opposite direction with virtual sample size for contingency with Power-PC equal to zero; b） the same increment of virtual sample induces the same increment of strength estimate for contingency with Power-PC equal to 0.50, but induces different increment of strength estimate for contingency with Power-PC equal to 0 and 1. Strength estimate changes significantly only when virtual sample changes from 50% to 87.5% （generate direction） for contingency with Power-PC equal to zero, but changes significantly when virtual sample changes from 12.5% to 50% and from 50% to 87.5% for contingency with Power-PC equal to 1. The virtual sample change from 12.5% to 50% leads to greater increment of strength estimates than the virtual sample change from 50% to 87.5% for contingency with Power-PC equal to 1. It seems that virtual samples play a steady role in participants＇ strength estimates, the same increment of virtual sample leads to different increments and changing trends of strength estimate on contingency with different Power-PC. However, these results share the same theoretical implication： high virtual samples lead participants＇ causal inference to Power-PC model＇s prediction, which has been deemed to maximum likelihood estimation of strength estimates.
出处
《心理科学》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2015年第1期146-151,共6页
Journal of Psychological Science
基金
江西省教育科学十二五规划重点课题“中学生因果推理能力的心理学研究”(14ZD3L017)的资助
关键词
强度估计
实质取样
作用方式
相同增量
系统偏差
strength estimate, virtual sample, influence pathway, same increment, system bias
