摘要
目前房产税对房价影响的研究仍没有获得一致的结论。文章借鉴行为金融学LLS模型,并对该模型进行优化的基础上,以上海市为研究对象,分别模拟了完全市场调节和房产税政策调控下的房价走势,并从统计学角度对房价走势进行了数据分析和比较。LLS模型分析表明,目前房产税征收税率低,对房价的抑制作用较小,房产税税率的杠杆作用并不显著,但对房价的抑制作用将逐年增强,这为深化我国房产税改革提供了有益的借鉴与决策支持。
At present, the stndy on the effect of property tax on housing prices has not come to a unanimous conclusion. This paper, by taking Shanghai municipality as the research object, quoting LLS modeling of behavior finance and optimizing the modeling, simulates tile housing price trends in both the complete market regulation and the property tax policy regulation re- spectively, anti makes the analysis and comparison on the data of the housing price trends from the perspective of statistics. The resuhs indicate that the current property tax rate is pretty low, has little depressing effect on housing prices, and its leverage effect is not significant. However, the depressing effect of property tax on housing prices will increase year hy year. This study provides a useful reference and decision support for deepening the reform of property tax in China.
出处
《华东经济管理》
CSSCI
北大核心
2015年第2期16-20,共5页
East China Economic Management
基金
国家社会科学基金青年项目(13CJY040)
上海市政府决策咨询课题研究专项课题(2014-GR-13)
关键词
LLS模型
房产税
房价
调控效应
LLS modeling
property tax
housing price
regulating effect
