摘要
目的分析山东省生育率的空间分布及其影响因素。方法利用空间分析软件GIS和Geo DA构建山东省139个县区人口生育率的空间数据库,并进行空间自相关和全局空间回归模型分析。结果全局空间自相关分析结果显示,Morans I=0.46,P<0.01。空间误差模型分析结果显示,影响因素中已婚率、抚养比、性别比、高学历率、离婚率差异有统计学意义,P<0.05,其中只有离婚率回归系数小于零。结论山东省各县区的生育率具有一定的空间相关性与聚集性。生育率聚集度较低的区域为威海、烟台等地及其周边,聚集度较高区域为临沂等地及其周边,存在明显地区差异。已婚率、抚养比、性别比与生育率空间分布呈正相关,离婚率与生育率空间分布呈负相关。
Objective To analyze the spatial distribution of fertility rate in Shandong Province and its influencing factors. Methods Spatial analysis software GIS and GeoDA were used to build the spatial database of fertility rate of 139 counties in Shandong Province, and spatial autocorrelation analysis and global spatial regression model analysis were conducted. Results The global spatial autocorrelation analysis showed Moran＇s I = 0.46, P 〈 0.01. In the spatial error model analy- sis, marriage rate, dependency ratio, sex ratio, high education rate and divorce rate showed statistical significance （ P 〈 0.05 ）, in which only the regression coefficient of the divorce rate was less than zero. Conclusion There is a certain spa- tial correlation and clustering in fertility rate among counties in Shandong Province. Weihai, Yantai and surrounding areas have lower aggregation in fertility rate, while Linyi and surrounding areas have higher aggregation in fertility rate. Fertility rate is positively related to the marriae rate, dependency ratio and sex ratio, and negatively related to divorce rate.
出处
《山东大学学报（医学版）》
CAS
北大核心
2014年第12期107-112,共6页
Journal of Shandong University:Health Sciences
基金
国家级大学生科技创新基金项目(201310422016)
关键词
生育率
空间分布
非政策因素
空间分析技术
GeoDA软件
Fertility rate
Spatial distribution
Non-political factors
Spatial analysis technology
Geoda software
