摘要
在人口众多、人均资源匮乏、生态环境脆弱的中国,都市化与中小城镇化何种城市化模式更符合可持续发展的要求,存在争议。通过对中国、美国、加拿大、英国、法国、日本、意大利、澳大利亚、韩国、巴西、印度、墨西哥、南非等发达国家与主要发展中国家的生态足迹、生态承载力、城镇人口比重等宏观面板数据的计量分析,揭示城市化客观规律,并与中国实际结合。研究表明:其一,百万以上人口城市的都市化更符合生态资源的可持续性。其显著降低人均生态足迹与生态环境压力,并倾向于增加人均生态承载力。如此促进生态资源的供给,削减生态资源的人均需求而有利于可持续发展。其二,百万以下人口城市的中小城镇化显著增加生态足迹与生态环境压力。其布局结构松散,倾向于占用大量生态环境资源,减少生态承载力供给;而低效、分散、粗放的生产生活方式也增加生态足迹,总体不利可持续发展。其三,人均固定资本存量、人均储蓄、政府购买都对可持续发展具有潜在的促进作用。最后,建议中国推行都市化战略,充分发挥大都市的规模经济效应,提高生态环境资源的利用效率;适度限制城镇化,避免中小城镇遍地开花对资源环境造成显著危害;学习国际优秀城市化经验及相关配套制度,并与中国结合;注重技术创新,发挥高新科技及资本带来的生产方式改进与效率提升。
With large population, remarkably fragile ecological environment and severe shortage of per capita resources, China faces the selection of urbanization mode. Which mode, the metropolises mode which stresses the development of metropolises, or the towns mode which emphasizes the expansion of middle-sized and small cities, is better for the healthy and sustainable development of economy, remains a controversy. Through analyzing the empirical panel data from developed and major developing countries, including China, the United States, Canada, Britain, France, Japan, Italy, Australia, Korea, Brazil, India, Mexico and South Africa, we revealed the objective laws of urbanization development. Based on China＇ s actual situation and research, we drew the following conclusions： （~）Urbanization of the city population with more than one million is more consistent with the sustainable ecological resources. It can lower the pressure on ecological environment significantly, and tends to increase the ecological carrying capacity per capita. （~）Small and medium-sized urbanization of city population with less than millions increases the ecological footprints and pressures on ecological environment significantly. Its loosely layout structure occupies lots of environmental resources, which reduces the supply of ecological carrying capacity. Its inefficient, decentralized and extensive mode of production and life also increase the ecological footprints, which are unfavorable to sustainable development overall. （~）The fixed capital stock per capita, per capita savings and government purchase have a potential role in promoting sustainable development. Finally, we suggest the Chinese government should implement the strategy of urbanization to achieve the economies of scale effects and improve the efficiency of ecological environment resources, slow down the speed of rural urbanization to avoid its damages on the resources and environment, absorb the experiences and support institutions of all the excellent cities by combining the reality of China, take technological innovation seriously, and obtain the improvement of production methods and efficiency by high technology and capital.
出处
《中国人口·资源与环境》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2015年第2期47-56,共10页
China Population,Resources and Environment
关键词
城市化
城镇化
生态足迹
生态承载力
可持续发展
urbanization
townization
ecologi.cal footprint
ecological capacity
sustainable development
