摘要
"未富先老"与退休年龄偏低并行是当前中国经济社会发展中的一个突出问题,延迟退休年龄成为养老保险制度改革的必然选择,然而,延迟退休与就业之间的关系是政策制定者须慎重考虑的重要问题。通过理论与实证角度研究延迟退休年龄对失业率的影响,验证了工作搜寻理论在中国的有效性:即失业率与劳动年龄人口存在显著的负相关关系。延迟退休年龄会使劳动年龄人口增加同时老年抚养比下降,最终导致失业率下降。由于未来中国人口发展的特点决定了失业率的上升趋势,进一步模拟分析发现延迟退休能够降低中国失业率水平,延迟退休年龄的时机选择会对失业率造成不同影响,审慎地选择延迟退休开始的时机对于稳定就业具有重要意义。
The phenomenon of ＂becoming old before getting rich＂and early retirement is an embarrassing problem in current China＇s economic and social development.Therefore,the delaying of retirement age will be the inevitable choice for the reform of the pension system.However,the effect of delaying retirement on unemployment is one of the important problems that policymakers must take into consideration.In view of this,we study the relationship between delaying retirement age and unemployment rate theoretically and empirically in this paper,verifying validation of DMP model in our country.DMP model points out that unemployment rate being negatively related to the amount of working-age population.Delaying retirement age will make the amount of working-age population increase,the dependency ratio of population decrease,and then the unemployment rate will decrease.The characteristics of China＇s population development in the future will lead to the increase of unemployment rate.Further simulation analysis finds that future unemployment levels would be reduced by the delaying of retirement age.Choosing different times to start delaying retirement will have different effects on the unemployment rate.Consciously choosing the suitable time is of great significance for keeping stable employment rate.
出处
《山东大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2015年第1期11-22,共12页
Journal of Shandong University(Philosophy and Social Sciences)
基金
国家社科基金重大项目"深化收入分配制度改革的财税机制与制度研究"(13&ZD031)
山东大学人文社科重大课题"营改增后完善我国财政体制研究"(13RWZD05)资助
关键词
人口老龄化
延迟退休年龄
工作搜寻理论
失业率
aging of population
delaying of retirement age
DMP model
unemployment rat
