摘要
为了验证混沌动力学模型在火灾损失预测中是否具有实用价值,以消防部提供的湖南省1990—2001年的火灾损失统计数据为基础,通过建立混沌动力学模型对2002年的火灾损失数值进行了预测,并将预测结果与实际统计数据进行对比,从而得出混沌动力学模型在火灾预测中具有计算量小、精度较高的优点,可以在实际过程中广泛应用.
It was verified that the chaotic dynamics model had practical applications in the prediction of fire damage. On the basis of the statistics of fire damage from 1990 to 2001 in Hunan province provided by the Fire Department,the chaotic dynamics model was established to forecast the fire damage value in 2002 and the predicted results were compared with actual statistics. The comparison showed that the model had advantages of less calculation and high accuracy,and thus could be widely applied.
出处
《甘肃科学学报》
2014年第6期94-97,共4页
Journal of Gansu Sciences
关键词
混沌动力学模型
火灾损失
预测
Chaotic Dynamics Model
Fire Damage
Prediction
