摘要
社会保险存在上下空间,然而中国社会保险增长呈现出非平衡的状况。本文运用HP滤波分解和统计描述的方法对中国社会保险发展的周期性阶段和同步性分布进行检验。实证检验显示:第一,养老保险、医疗保险、失业保险、工伤保险、生育保险在参保人数增长、基金收入增长、基金结余增长三个维度均存在正缺口或负缺口;第二,在三个维度上,社会保险发展所处的繁荣或衰退阶段是不同的;第三,在三个维度上社会保险发展的同步性概率也存在差别。本文最后得出两点政策启示。
Social insurance has its top and bottom space, but China social insurance growth presents a non -equilibrium. This paper tests the periodic phase and synchronic distribution of China social insurance development by HP filter decomposition and statistical description. The empirical test shows that pension insurance, medical insurance, unemployment insurance, industrial injury insurance and maternity insurance have positive or negative gaps in terms of insurance number growth, fund income growth and fund balance growth, and that in the above three dimensions social insurance development is different both in developing phases, prosperous or declining, and in synchronization probability. And two policy implications are derived.
出处
《山东财政学院学报》
2014年第6期14-23,共10页
Journal of Shandong Finance Institute
基金
山东省自然科学基金项目(ZR2011GL008)
山东省社会科学规划重大委托项目"金融产业优化与区域发展管理协同创新研究(14AWTJ01-7)"
泰山学者建设工程专项经费资助
关键词
社会保险
周期性阶段
同步性概率
HP滤波
social insurance
periodic phase
synchronization probability
HP filter
