摘要
目的：探究分析灰色模型GM（1,1）、ARIMA及线性回归模型在孕产妇死亡率（MMR）中的拟合应用并比较模型的适用性及精确性,为妇幼保健工作提供科学依据。方法：以1991-2012年全国MMR为原始资料,运用SAS分析软件,分别采用灰色模型GM（1,1）、ARIMA及线性回归进行拟合比较分析并预测2013年MMR,比较预测效果。结果：灰色模型GM（1,1）和线性回归模型均通过模型检验建模成功,灰色模型GM（1,1）P=1.00,C=0.137 89,线性回归模型F=236.57,P〈0.000 1;2013年MMR预测显示：线性回归模误差较大,误差的方差（MPE）为10.08,平均相对误差绝对值（MAPE）为13.69%。结论：ARIMA不适合拟合MMR,灰色模型GM（1,1）和线性回归模型均可用于MMR的拟合,但预测某一年份时需慎重。
Objective： To explore the imitative applications of gray model GM （ 1, 1 ）, ARIMA model and linear regression model for maternal mortality rate （MMR） , compare the applicability and accuracy, provide a scientific basis for maternal and child health care. Methods： The national MMR from 1991 to 2012 were used as the original data, AS software was used, gray model GM （1, 1 ） , ARIMA model and linear regression model were adopted for imitation, comparison and analysis; MMR in 2013 was predicted, the predictive effects were compared. Results： Gray model GM （ 1, 1 ） and linear regression model were established successfully, gray model GM （ 1, 1 ） P = 1.00, C =0. 137 89; linear regression model F =236. 57, P 〈0. 000 1; MMR in 2013 was predicted, the results showed that the error of linear regression model is large, MPE was 10. 08, MAPE was 13.69%. Conclusion： ARIMA is unsuitable for MMR, both gray model GM （ 1, 1 ） and linear regression model can be used for MMR imitation, but the application should be strict when used for predicting a given year.
出处
《中国妇幼保健》
CAS
2015年第5期664-666,共3页
Maternal and Child Health Care of China
