摘要
文章从理论和实证两方面论证人民币金融账户开放与银行体系风险、外汇市场风险、资产泡沫风险之间的互动机制。研究表明:金融账户开放水平越高,越容易加剧这三类风险;同时,这三类风险增加反过来又温和地延缓金融账户开放进程,其中外汇市场风险对于金融账户开放的延缓最明显。因此,应合理安排中国金融账户开放顺序,资产性市场应最后开放,加快汇率弹性机制改革,强化国内银行体系审慎监管。
This paper analyzes,from both theoretical and empirical perspectives,interactions between RMB financial account liberalization and three types of risks,i. e.,banking system risk,exchange market risk( EMR) and asset bubble risk( ABR). The research shows that the higher the liberalization of the financial account,the higher the three risks. On the other hand,the increase of the three risks gently slows down the liberalization of financial account. Of the three risks,EMR has the most obvious impact on the slow-down of the liberalization of financial account. Therefore,it is important that China's financial account is liberalized in an orderly manner with the opening of capital market being the last. Meanwhile,reform of exchange rate flexibility system should be hastened and prudent supervision of domestic banking system be strengthened.
出处
《世界经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2015年第2期3-14,127,共12页
World Economy Studies
基金
教育部人文社会科学规划项目"人民币国际化的动力机制
时空路径选择--兼论上海国际金融中心建设"(项目号:12YJA790029)
上海市哲学社会科学规划一般课题"上海发展人民币离岸中心的障碍
动力机制与政策策略选择"(项目号:2012BJB003)的阶段性成果
