摘要
基于全国31个省区1993—2011年入境旅游流与区域经济系统面板数据,借鉴物理学领域耦合协调度模型,结合GIS分析对全国各省区入境旅游流与区域经济耦合协调程度进行历时性与共时性演变格局分析。研究发现:(1)入境旅游流与区域经济系统综合发展水平呈现波动发展上升态势且发展态势趋同,二者阶段之间及内部发展速度存在差异,入境旅游流发展水平阶段增长率较区域经济阶段增长率快,且阶段发展水平标准差极化态势较强;区域经济阶段标准差极化态势较弱。(2)各省区入境旅游流与区域经济耦合协调水平与区域经济发展趋势较为一致,耦合协调度阶段增长率均在20%以上,阶段标准差演变总体呈现上升态势,但增速在减小。(3)各省区耦合协调度格局实现了由严重失调至初级协调区间的跨越,总体向协调趋势继续演变,但阶段内部二者协调度类型又有所交叉。(4)各省区经济发展水平、地理区位、资源禀赋、区域政策等因素是造成区域耦合协调度格局及其差异的主要因素,但在不同阶段,上述因素所起的作用程度不同。研究结果对进一步丰富旅游流研究内容,明确各区域耦合协调度阶段发展特征及其差异性,耦合协调度格局层次性及演变趋势有一定理论意义。
Based on the 31 provinces inbound tourism flows and regional economic system panel data from 1993 to 2011, using physics coupling coordination degree model and GIS, this paper analyzes the degree of coupling coordinated of inbound tourism flows and regional economic, the pattern of evolution and configuration. The result shows that ： （ 1 ） Tourism development levels of four stages show a fluctuating and convergence trend ; comprehensive development levels of four basic stages of inbound tourism show an upward trend. From 1993 to 1997, the inbound tourism development levels of 31 provinces are low. Comprehensive development level mean at this stage with an average of 0. 1328, standard deviation is 0. 0621. From 1998 to 2002, the comprehensive development level mean with an average of 0. 238, standard deviation is 0. 0995. From 2003 to 2007, the comprehensive development level of inbound tourism with an average of 0. 3826, standard deviation is 0. 1188. From 2008 to 2011, the comprehensive development level with an average of 0. 6989, standard deviation is 0. 1451, the standard rate was significantly widened. （2） Regional economic development average shows a fluctuated and upward trend, but there are regional differences in economic development level. From 1993 to 1997, regional economic development levels were low in the 31 provinces, mean comprehensive evaluation value of this stage of regional economic is 0. 0444 and standard deviation is 0. 0115. From 1998 to 2002, the level of regional economic development en- hanced. Mean comprehensive evaluation value of this stage of regional economic is 0. 1211 and standard deviation is 0. 0249. From 2003 to 2007, the level of regional economic development increased faster than the previous stage. Mean comprehensive evaluation value of this stage of regional economic is 0. 3231 and standard deviation is 0. 0539. From 2008 to 2011, mean comprehensive evaluation value of this stage of regional economic is 0. 759 and standard deviation is 0. 0366. （3） From the coupling coordination degree development process, the coupling coordination degree of the inbound tourists flow and regional economic in four stages of the overall evolution of the provinces is more consistent. From 1993 to 1997, the inbound tourists flows and regional economic coordination are within the range of serious disorders, in this phase the coupling coordination degree evaluation value is 0. 1686 and standard deviation is 0. 0261. From 1998 to 2002, the coupling coordination degrees of some provinces change disorders to moderate range , in this phase the coupling coordination degree evaluation values is 0. 2754 and standard deviation is 0. 0318. From 2003 to 2007, the coupling coordination degrees in the 31 provinces have greatly im- proved compared to the previous stage, but the pace of development coordination degree shows differentiation within the region, showing a polarization trend. From 2008 to 2011, the development pace of coupling coordination degree within the region was consistent. （4） The coordination degree of inbound tourists flow and regional economic shows the trend from disorder to the coordinated, in different stages, the degree of regional coordination crossed some- what. From 1993 to 1997, the coordination degree of inbound tourists flow and regional economic fluctuated in the range of moderate or serious disorders. From 1998 to 2002, the coordination degree of inbound tourists flow and regional economic evolved within the range of mild and moderate disorders. From 2003 to 2007, the coordination degree of inbound tourists flow and regional economic continued within the range of mild and moderate disorders. From 2008 to 2011, the coordination degree of inbound tourists flow and regional economic shows primary coordination, barely disorders and on the verge coordination situation. （5）Through matrix analysis, from 1993 to 1997, the mean comprehensive evaluation value of inbound tourist flow system is 0. 133, and that of integrated regional economic system is 0. 044. From 1998 to 2002, comprehensive evaluation value of inbound tourism flow system mean is 0. 238, regional economic comprehensive evaluation value is 0. 121. From 2003 to 2007, inbound tourist flow comprehensive evaluation system mean value is 0. 383, regional economic comprehensive evaluation value is 0. 323. From 2008 to 2011, inbound tourist flow comprehensive evaluation system mean value is 0. 669, regional e- conomic comprehensive evaluation value is 0. 759. （6） The geographic location, resource endowments and regional policy are the major contributing factors to regional coordination degree. Research findings can expand the content of tourism flows, also have some significance meanings on explicit coupling coordinating stages for the development of regional characteristics and differences, coupling of coordinating patterns and trends.
出处
《经济管理》
CSSCI
北大核心
2015年第3期33-43,共11页
Business and Management Journal ( BMJ )
基金
国家自然科学基金项目"旅游流与目的地耦合:因素及模型与机制研究--六大城市入境旅游为例"(41271158)
"入境旅游流对境外客源国文化表征的时空响应研究--以旅华日本游客为例"(41201148)
"基于媒介地理视角的旅游地意向形成机理研究--以河南少林寺为例"(41401147)
关键词
入境旅游流
区域经济
时空差异
耦合协调度
inbound tourism flows
regional economic
spatial and temporal differences
coupling coordina- tion degree
