摘要
目的用时间序列建立住院人数线性回归模型,预测2014、2015、2016、2017年的住院人数。方法用最小二乘法建立线性模型,并对模型进行回归分析。结果回归模型Y=13 067.28＋2 511.04X,方差分析结果 P=0.0025,按α=0.05水准,P〈0.05,可以认为住院人数与年次有直线回归关系。某院2014、2015、2016、2017年的住院人数点预测值分别为33 156.60、35 666.64、38 177.68、40 688.72;区间预测为27 314.59-38 996.61、29 825.63-41 507.65、32 336.67-44 018.69、34 847.71-46 529.73。结论通过预测住院人数为医院的工作计划和决策提供依据,使卫生资源得到合理应用。
Objective Establishment of inpatients in linear regression model with time series,prediction of inpatients number in 2014、2015、2016、2017.Methods A linear model is established by least square method,and analysis the model of regression.Results Regression model Y=13 067.28＋2 511.04 X,the results of variance analysis P=0.0025,according to the α=0.05 standard,P〈0.05,can be considered the number of the years hospital inpatients point predictive values were hospitalized at 33156.60,35666.64,38177.68,40688.72 in 2014,2015,2016,2017;interval prediction numb er were 27 314.59-38 996.61,29 825.63-41 507.65,32 336.67-44 018.69,34 847.71-46 529.73.Conclusion By predicting the inpatients number to provide the basis for the work of the hospital planning and decision making,obtained the health resources to be the reasonable using.
出处
《疾病监测与控制》
2014年第10期616-617,共2页
Journal of Diseases Monitor and Control
关键词
住院人数
最小二乘法
线性模型
预测
inpatients
the least square method
linear model
forecast
