摘要
金融条件指数(FCI)是衡量和预测一国货币政策和金融松紧状况的重要参考指标,对实体经济有较强的预测能力。本文结合我国的实际情况,构建了包括实际利率、实际有效汇率、社会融资规模增速、房地产市场指数、股票市场指数等5类因素在内的FCI。从总体上看,2014年我国FCI呈先升后降、总体下行的特点,对经济增长有抑制作用。从FCI成分指标变化看,除股票市场对FCI改善发挥了积极作用外,其他几个因素都在不同程度上对FCI产生了抑制作用,其中实际有效汇率对FCI下降的贡献为61.1%,是对FCI影响最大的因素。本文逐项分析了影响FCI的因素,并就金融如何更好地支持经济发展提出了政策建议。
Financial Conditions Index（FCI） is an important tool to assess the changes in financial conditions and to forecast output growth. Based on China＇s national conditions,we introduce China-FCI by incorporating real interest rate,real effective exchange rate, real estate index,and equity price index. We find that China-FCI increased at first and then decreased,but tilted to the downside on the whole in 2014. From the changes of China-FCI component indicators,equity price index is the only indicator improving China-FCI,real effective exchange rate make the largest contributions（61.1%） of China- FCI＇s increased at first and then decreasing. We analyze 5 component indicators one by one and make policy suggestions.
出处
《金融发展研究》
北大核心
2015年第2期27-32,共6页
Journal Of Financial Development Research
关键词
金融条件指数
实际利率
实际有效汇率
社会融资规模
financial conditions index
real interest rate
real effective exchange rate
social financing scale
