摘要
全国单独二孩生育政策于2014年正式实施,但近一年现实表明,二孩申请远低于预期。本文认为,生育意愿和生育行为存在"东亚现象"可以作为这一现象的理论解释。同时,决策前期的生育意愿调查受政策的逆反效应、舆论的助推效应和"搭班车"的社会心理效应的影响使得二孩生育意愿调查结果偏高。本文利用北京市人口研究所在北京市东城区进行的三次生育意愿调查中双独家庭的调查数据和访谈资料,对单独二孩政策实施后适用群体的生育行为进行了预估,并对生育政策进一步调整方向做了讨论。
The selective two-child policy（Either parents is an only child,they are eligible to have two children of their own）was gradually put into implementation across provinces since January 2014.However,the applicant families are far less than what was predicted in recent year.To understand the reasons of thecold response＂,this paper points out that,theEast-Asian Phenomenon＂existing in people＇s fertility intention and fertility behavior is its theoretical explanation. At the same time,the social psychological factors including the antagonistic effect to the birth control policy,the pushing effect by public opinion and the social psychology ofadvantage taking＂,influence the surveys of fertility intention done before the policy decision-making,and led to the result of high fertility intention in the surveys.This paper,using the surveys data and corresponding information from Beijing Institute of Population Research,estimates the fertility desire and behavior of the eligible people and discusses the adjustment trend for the selective two-child policy.
出处
《华中师范大学学报（人文社会科学版）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2015年第2期20-26,共7页
Journal of Central China Normal University:Humanities and Social Sciences
基金
国家社会科学基金项目"低生育率下北京市生育意愿与生育行为的追踪研究"(13BRK019)
国家社科基金重大项目"我国生育政策调整带来的新社会问题研究"(14ZDB150)
关键词
单独二孩政策
申请遇冷
生育意愿
生育行为
the selective two-child policy
cold response to the application
fertility intention
fertility behavior
