摘要
为准确预测未来天然气的需求量,数值分析了近年来我国各地天然气销气量数据的变化特性。针对使用传统灰色预测模型预测结果存在的不足,以模型能够预测的数据序列类型与实际数据序列类型一致性为目标,通过优化模型结构,构建了一种满足原始序列非齐次指数律变化的灰色非齐次模型,并利用最小二乘法与矩阵运算法证明了模型的可行性。结合所建模型的白化解和精确解,详细探讨了产生模型预测不稳定现象的内在原因及其影响因素。以陕西省为例,对模型进行验证并预测,结果表明:所构建的灰色非齐次模型预测误差小,与原始数据类型拟合度高,对具有非齐次指数律特性的原始序列有很强的适用性。
To predict the future gas demand accurately, the changes of natural gas sales volume data over China in recent years are numerically analyzed. Deficiencies exist in the predictions of traditional gray forecasting model. Therefore, to achieve the consistency of sequence data type that can be predicted with the actual sequence data type, through optimizing the model structure, a gray inhomogeneous model which considers the inhomogeneous exponential law change of original sequence is established, and its feasibility is proved using least squares method and matrix operations. Combing the white solution and exact solution of the model, the underlying causes and influencing factors for instable forecasting results are discussed in detail. Taking the Shaanxi Province as an example, the model is validated and used for forecasting. The results show that the gray inhomogeneous model has small error and highly fit original data type. The model is quite applicable to original sequence with inhomogeneous exponential law change.
出处
《油气储运》
CAS
北大核心
2015年第3期288-292,共5页
Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation
关键词
天然气销气量
灰色预测模型
非齐次指数律
非齐次模型
稳定性
省级管网
gas sales volume
grey forecasting model
inhomogeneous exponential law
inhomogeneous model
stability
provincial pipeline network
