摘要
远程教育实践的快速发展,不仅对远程教育专业人才提出了迫切需求,也对远程教育的理论及方法体系建设提出了迫切需要。特尔斐法(Delphi)作为一种用来预测和评估事物规律或流行趋势的研究方法,近年来在国际远程教育领域中的应用呈现不断上升的趋势。通过对2002-2014年14本国际远程教育核心期刊中使用特尔斐法的研究案例进行质性元分析发现,一些高水平的国际核心期刊高度认可利用该方法开展的研究,且其研究主题超出了已有研究认定的两类研究主题范畴(远程教育人员能力结构和远程教育的管理与评价)。在具体的实施过程中,特尔斐法调查分析开展的轮数和周期因研究问题的复杂程度、调查对象的范围、专家意见的收敛程度等情况存在差异。因此,在应用特尔斐法的过程中,既要看到其在解决复杂、模糊问题方面的优势,也要重视其专家组成员的选择与组成,保证参与者的异质性,并通过设计开放、客观且有针对性的征询调查表,选择恰当的收集与分析方法,在专家充分讨论的基础上,追求意见的收敛。
The rapid development of distance education practice not only made an urgent demand for distance education professionals, but also made an urgent need of distance education theory and methodology. Delphi, as a research method used to predict and evaluate the patterns and trends of things, has been increasingly applied to the international distance education. With a qualitative meta-analysis of studies with the Delphi method in distance education core journals from 2002-2014, it is found that the high-impact international core journals highly recognize the research with the Delphi method and the research topics have exceeded the two main categories including the personnel capability structure of distance education staff and the management and evaluation of distance education. The rounds and periods of investigation with the Delphi method vary according to the complexity of the research problem, the scope of the survey, and expert opinions in the specific implementation process.Therefore, when use the Delphi method, we should not just see its advantages in solving complex and fuzzy problems, but also pay attention to the selection and composition of members in the expert team to ensure the heterogeneity panelists, and pursue the convergence of views by designing open, objective and targeted consultation questionnaires, choosing appropriate methods for data collection and analysis and organizing full discussion among experts.
出处
《现代远程教育研究》
CSSCI
2015年第2期62-70,共9页
Modern Distance Education Research
关键词
远程教育
特尔斐法
应用图景
核心期刊
质性元分析
Distance Education
Delphi Method
Application Prospect
Core Journals
Qualitative Meta-Analysis
