摘要
为了解决当前多灾种综合风险评估中存在的忽略灾害间相互作用、对城市用地规划指导不足的问题,提出针对城市用地规划的多灾种耦合风险评估方法.通过指标权重法对地震、地面沉降、滑坡、崩塌、暴雨、海水入侵以及海岸侵蚀7种灾害进行潜在危险性分级,确定各灾种的初始危险性指数,绘制初始图件;建立耦合模型对存在相互作用的灾种的初始危险指数进行修正,得到耦合后的危险性图件;通过风险矩阵法将耦合后的多灾种危险性与城市规划用地易损性相结合,得到综合风险图.应用结果表明:采用该方法提高了多灾种耦合危险性评估的合理性,能够反映不同用地类型下多灾种风险的差异性和相似性,有助于决策者和规划者快速识别规划用地的综合风险.
An original multi-hazard risk assessment method was developed in order to deal with the interactions of multiple hazards and give effective guidance on urban land-use planning.First,an indicator-based approach was used to calculate the initial hazard index of each hazard and to make initial hazard maps.These hazards included earthquake,land subsidence,landslide,rock fall,heavy rainfall,seawater intrusion and coastal erosion.Second,a triggering-triggered model was established to modify the initial hazard index and to update the initial hazard maps.Third,a risk matrix approach was used to combine updated hazard maps and urban land-use types,and to make an integrated risk map.The application results show that using this method can enhance the rationality of multi-hazard assessment,reflect the differences and similarities of multi-hazard risk with respect to different land-use types.It can help decision makers and local planners identify the comprehensive risk of planned land-uses easily.
出处
《浙江大学学报（工学版）》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2015年第3期538-546,共9页
Journal of Zhejiang University：Engineering Science
基金
国家自然科学基金青年基金资助项目(41301598)
国土资源部公益性行业科研专项基金资助项目(201211039-4)
关键词
多灾种
风险评估
耦合
城市用地规划
地理信息系统
multi-hazard
risk assessment
coupling events
urban land-use planning
geographic information system
