摘要
人民币国际化的改革目标要求中国在综合考虑金融改革的背景下,统筹安排资本账户的开放顺序。文章通过运用时变参数向量自回归模型(TVP-VAR),实证配套金融改革之间的影响关系与宏观影响。研究结果显示,利率及汇率改革会显著增强跨境资本流动对货币价值的冲击,因此资本账户开放不宜置于改革末期。综合三项改革的影响作用,在以宏观稳定为首要目标、经济持续增长为次要目标的情况下,研究结论认为"利率市场化——资本账户部分开放——汇率市场化——资本账户完全开放"是最适宜人民币资本账户开放的改革顺序。
In order to achieve the RMB internationalization,China should manage an sequential opening-up of capital account,considering thefinancial reformprogress.The empirical analysis by using the Time-Varying Parameters Vector Autoregressive Model indicates that the reform of interest and exchange rates intensifies the impact of cross-border capital flows on monetary values.Thus,the opening up of capital account should not be left to later stages of the reform.By taking macroeconomic stability as a primary objective and sustainable economic growth as secondary objective,the research concludes that the best sequence of RMB capital account opening is interest rate liberalization-partial opening of capital account-exchange rate reform-whole opening of capital account.
出处
《世界经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2015年第4期13-23,127,共11页
World Economy Studies
