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河流年径流量的R/S灰色预测 被引量:18

R/S Grey Prediction of River Annual Runoff
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摘要 径流过程具有分形和灰色特征。基于此,将R/S分析与灰色系统理论相结合,提出了R/S&色预测模型以预报河流年径流量。针对黑河正义峡水文站60a(1949~2011年)的年径流量资料,首先进行R/S分析.确定径流量序列的Hurst指数H和平均循环周期r;然后在一个周期内进行年径流量灰色预测。结果表明:R/S.&色预测结果的精度明显高于直接进行灰色预测的精度。该方法拓宽了分形和灰色理论在径流过程研究的应用范围,为河流径流量的科学预测提供了一种新方法。 River runoff series has the characteristics of fractal and gray. Therefore, by combining gray system themy with R/S analysis, R/S gray prediction model was proposed to forecast annual runoff. Based on the data of the annual runoff at the Zhengyixia Station of the Heihe River during the period 1949-2011, the runoff series were analyzed by R/S method. The Hurst exponent and average cycle of river runoff series were determined firstly; then, in one cycle, annual runoff was predicted by gray. The prediction results show that R/S gray prediction model has higher precision indeed. This method broadens the application range of fractal theory and grey model, and provides a new scientific approach for predicting annual runoff.
出处 《水文》 CSCD 北大核心 2015年第2期44-48,共5页 Journal of China Hydrology
基金 国家自然基金重点项目"黑河流域生态水文样带调查"(91025002)
关键词 年径流量 R/S灰色预测 平均循环周期 黑河 annual runoff R/S gray prediction average circular period Heihe River
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