摘要
构建影响中国家庭生育决策的四维模型,并利用1991—2011年CHNS面板数据分析家庭生育意愿的变迁及其决定因素。研究表明,个人、家庭、区域和政策因素都会影响生育意愿。城乡、区域和不同结构家庭之间的生育意愿趋同意味着现行的差别性生育政策的基础已经逐步发生改变,政策重点需要从维持低生育水平转向考虑家庭内在生育意愿的主导因素,由"约束型"转向"引导型";生育政策对生育意愿具有一定的导向作用,但在一些情况下不可预估,政策不确定性和不公平性可能导致生育意愿产生意想不到的逆向变化,因此未来更应关注政策过渡的平稳性和群体间的公平性,引导人们形成稳定的政策预期;政策的人性化、家庭化和与其他政策的相互配合也应成为未来调整的方向。
This paper constructs a four-dimensional model to research fertility desire in Chinese family,and analyses the changes and determinants of household fertility desire with the CHNS panel data 1991—2011. The personal factors,family factors,regional factors and the family planning policy all affect the fertility desire. The fertility desire gap between urban and rural regions,and different families is going to disappear,that means the family planning policy has gradually changed,the policy emphasis needs to change from maintaining a low fertility level to considering more dominant factors of fertility desire,and from ＂restraint type＂to ＂guide type＂. Family planning policy has some effect on fertility desire,but in some cases its effects cannot be estimated,policy uncertainty and unfairness may lead to opposite changes in fertility desire. So the family planning policy should pay more attention on fairness between different families,and guiding people to form stable policy expectations.
出处
《贵州财经大学学报》
CSSCI
北大核心
2015年第3期79-91,共13页
Journal of Guizhou University of Finance and Economics
基金
国家自然科学基金项目"中国财政现金管理效率评估及其最优化研究"(编号:71103183)
国家社会科学基金项目"欧美主权债务风险溢出效应及中国应对策略研究"(编号:12CGJ011)
中国劳动关系学院科研项目(编号:13YY056)
关键词
生育意愿
计划生育政策
家庭结构
fertility desire
family planning policy
family structures
