摘要
农业机械化是农业现代化的重要标志,吉林省作为粮食大省,农业机械化的发展至关重要。为此,运用吉林省1987-2012年的相关数据,对吉林省农业机械总动力及其影响因素进行多元线性回归分析,建立了回归模型。结果表明:在其他变量保持不变的情况下,农村居民家庭恩格尔系数每降低1%,农机总动力就增加0.5947%;农村劳动力转移率每增加1%,农机总动力就增加0.5155%;农民家庭年纯收入每增加1%,农机总动力就增加0.1248%;农业财政支出每增加1%,农机总动力就增加0.0936%;人均耕地面积每增加1%,农机总动力就增加0.0064%。未来吉林省要充分重视这5个主要因素,从提高农民对农机的内在需求和加强政府扶持等外部环境两大方面促进农业机械化的发展。另外,需要加强对新型职业农民的培育,以适应新时期农机发展对人才与科技的需求。
Agricultural Mechanization is an important symbol of the modernization of agriculture .As the food great province, it is very crucial to the development of agricultural mechanization in Jilin Province .This paper analyzes the to-tal power of agricultural machinery and the influence factors by multiple linear regression analysis , using the relevant data＆amp;nbsp;of Jilin Province during 1987-2012 .The regression model is established .The results show that , in the case of other vari-ables remain the same , with the Engel coefficient of rural decreasing 1%, the number of agricultural machinery total power is increased by 0 .594 7%;with rural labor force transfer rate increasing 1%, the number of total power of agricul-tural machinery is increased by 0 .515 5%;with the family net income of farmers every year increasing 1%, the number of agricultural machinery total power is increased by 0 .124 8%; with agricultural fiscal expenditure increasing by 1%, the number of agricultural machinery total power is increased by 0 .093 6%;with in per capita arable land area creasing 1%, the number of total power of agricultural machinery is increased by 0 .006 4%.It should pay full attention to the five main factors in future in Jilin province .On the one hand , it should raise farmers＇internal demand for agricultural machinery .On the other hand , It should provide the good external environment , such as strengthening government sup-port .In addition , it need to strengthen the cultivation of new peasants occupation , to meet the demand for talent and technology of agricultural development in the new period .
出处
《农机化研究》
北大核心
2015年第12期43-48,共6页
Journal of Agricultural Mechanization Research
基金
吉林省教育厅"十二五"社会科学研究重点项目(吉教科文合字[2013]第335号)
关键词
农业机械总动力
回归分析
吉林省
total power of agricultural machinery
regression analysis
Jilin Province
