摘要
鉴于传统旅游承载力以游客数量作为承载对象可能存在的不足和缺陷,提出以环境状态作为承载对象的旅游承载力定义。在评价方法上,在可接受变化限度理论框架下,运用陈述性偏好方法,根据游客在游憩活动中的成本效益作为环境状态可接受程度的评价标准。通过选择试验和条件logit模型得出潜在环境状态下游客对环境质量变化的边际效用和敏感程度。研究结果表明,游客对"拥挤程度"最为敏感,其次是"人文景观的保护程度",而"植被覆盖率"对游客效用的影响较弱。另外,给出了25个潜在环境属性集的环境状态情况,包括承载力状态,最优与最差状态,以及可接受与不可接受状态。
As the nature-based tourism demand increases, the forest park authorities and site managers need to understand the tradeoffs between the level of natural wilderness protection and the visitors＇ satisfactory experience. Tourism carrying capacity, as the core concern of natural tourism site management, has long been paid high attention by both relevant government agencies and academic institutions. But, due to its conceptual ambiguity, there is no clear cut and commonly accepted definition and connotation that is well established as a recreation parks＇ carrying capacity. Therefore, no universally consistent evaluation method exists for assessing carrying capacity of a recreational site such as a national forest park. Traditionally, the tourism carrying capacity often uses the potential number of visitors received at site as the singular criterion in measuring carrying capacity. A big shortcoming of this measurement is that it ignores visitors＇ perception toward a recreation site. In this paper, we propose adding the dimension of visitors＇ perception to the tourism carrying capacity metrics. In the process, this study adopts the limits of acceptable change （LAC） as the theoretical framework, combined with the stated preference methods as well as a cost-benefit analysis to evaluate the level of acceptability of a creational site, and use this as a new metric for measuring a park＇ s carrying capacity. In addition, the choice experiment design and conditional Logit model are utilized to evaluate the economic value of each environmental attribute and management factor. To demonstrate the proposed method of carrying capacity assessment, this research takes the Liishunkou National Forest Park as a pilot study area which is located in northeastern China. One important feature about this park is that it has both forest resources and historical relics as recreation attractions for tourists - a typical natural resource park in China, but rarely present in other countries across the world.
The model results show that visitors are mostly sensitive to the degree of crowding, less sensitive to the cultural resource protection, and the least sensitive to the vegetation coverage. As to the carrying capacity with respect to each individual environmental attribute, the vegetation coverage is 60% - 75%, amount of rubbish between 6-12 pieces / 200m, level of crowding between 20 - 30 people / 100m2. Finally, the results also show the rank order for the total 25 environmental attribute sets developed from CE design. Given obtained potential states from the 25 environmental attribute sets described in appendix to the codes, the best attribute set is {C21}, the worst attribute set is {C10}, attribute set {C3, Cll, C18, C25} are close to carrying capacity status. This paper focuses on the environmental factors affecting marginal changes to the carrying capacity, and hopes to explain the problem to the Institute of Tourism about the carrying capacity from the tourist satisfaction and decision angle. The research method not only enriches the research content and research perspective of tourism can＇ying capacity, but also provides a theoretical basis for improving scenic carrying capacity.
出处
《旅游学刊》
CSSCI
北大核心
2015年第4期105-114,共10页
Tourism Tribune
基金
国家自然科学基金项目"基于环境价值的滨海旅游承载力评价理论方法与实证研究"(71271040)
教育部高等学校博士点专项科研基金项目"国家森林公园旅游承载力评价理论方法与实证研究"(20110041110026)
国家社会科学基金项目"旅游引导的乡村新型城镇化模式及其效应研究"(14BJL112)资助~~
