摘要
为揭示可控飞行撞地(CFIT)事故致因规律,根据Reason-SHEL模型得出的10个CFIT事故致因因子,分析从飞行安全基金会数据库中整理出的2006—2011年间40起CFIT事故。在此基础上建立CFIT事故年份-成因列联表,再利用SPSS软件对表格进行对应分析。将事故成因和年份同时反映在二维散点图中,实现数据可视化。最后对图形进行向量、圆心接近点以及区域化等3项分析。根据结果得出,CFIT事故的主成因是人因操作和外界环境;随着年份增加,飞行员状态(药物/疲劳、经验不足)对造成CFIT事故的重要性越来越明显;不同年份有不同的重要致因因子。
To reveal the regularity in CFIT accident causes, 40 accident-investigating reports from 2006 to 2011 in the Flight Safety Foundation database were analyzed with 10 CFIT accident cause factors derived from Reason-SHEL model. On the basis of these analyses, a CFIT accident sample-cause contingency table was established, then a two-dimensional scatter plot was got by using SPSS software to deal with the table by the way of correspondence analysis. Both accident cause and occurrence year were plotted on a two-dimensional scatter point graph, and data visualization was realized. For the graph, vector analysis, analysis of the points closing to the center and regionalism were carried out. According to the results of analysis, the main causes of CFIT accident are operation and external environment; with the year increased, the pilots＇states （drug and/or fatigue, lack of experience） show more and more obvious impor- tance to causing CFIT accidents; and CFIT contributing factors are different in different years.
出处
《中国安全科学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2015年第2期95-100,共6页
China Safety Science Journal
基金
国家自然科学基金资助(61304207
U1333112)
民航局科技项目(MHRD201238)
