摘要
经济-资源-环境的协调发展是可持续发展的关键环节,城市经济的发展越来越多地受到资源和环境方面的限制,如何摆脱当前的困境,实现经济资源环境的可持续发展,是当前亟需解决的问题。研究城市经济-资源-环境可持续发展的内涵及框架,利用系统动力学的原理和方法,以重庆为例,通过道格拉斯生产函数将资源、环境、技术等子系统与GDP子系统联系起来,构建了经济-资源-环境系统动力学模型处理由于城市资源耗尽和环境恶化所限制的经济增长问题,同时设定了基础、资源、环境、技术和经济5个情景,对不同情景模拟结果进行了比较分析。结果表明:单独改变系统中的子系统不能实现重庆的可持续发展,转变经济发展模式才是重庆可持续发展的优化发展方案。
The coordinated development of Economy-Resources-Environment （ERE） is the key to sustainable development. As a mu- nicipality in the southwestern China, Chongqing＇s economic development is subjected to the constraints from resource and environ- ment. How to solve these developmental bottlenecks and achieve the sustainable development of economy, resources, and environ- ment is one of the most vital issues acquired at present. Based on the connotation and framework of sustainable development of ur- ban ERE, this paper employs the theory and methodology of System Dynamics （SD） to deal with the constrained economic growth due to urban resource depletion and environmental degradation, in which resource, environment, and technology subsystems are combined with economy subsystem in a Cobb-Douglas production. At the same time, five scenarios of foundation, resources, envi- ronment, technology and economy are designed to compare the simulation results under the different scenarios. The results demon- strate that it is not workable to achieve the sustainable development merely by changing the subsystem, but the conversion of the mode of economic development can be the best solution for the sustainable development of Chongqing.
出处
《重庆师范大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2015年第3期59-67,共9页
Journal of Chongqing Normal University:Natural Science
基金
国家自然科学基金(No.41201546
No.41261038)
国家十二五科技支撑计划专题(No.2011BAC02B02)
国家十二五科技支撑计划项目(No.2012BAJ25B09)
重庆市自然科学基金(No.cstc2012jjA20010)
关键词
可持续发展
系统动力学
情景模拟
经济-资源-环境系统
重庆
sustainable development
system dynamics
scenario simulation
Economy-Resource-Environment system
Chongqing
